NBA playoffs betting: Play-in tournament and Game 1 picks

It was a 2-2 split for us, but an 0-4 start for anyone blindly betting favorites in the NBA's opening games of the play-in tournament, which, given the historic success of the chalk in the NBA Playoffs, and an 8-4 ATS record in play-in games historically, you could see how one might.

Two more play-in games are set for Friday night, and two more Game 1s are good to go this weekend.

(10)Bulls @ (7)Heat (-5.5, 208.5)

We liked the Bulls in Toronto because, while they don't take efficient shots, at least they make them. Chicago didn't necessarily come back to beat the Raptors because of the shrill shrieking of Demar Derozan's offspring, but because Toronto's early 3-point shooting success proved to be the outlier you'd hope it would be. After a 6-of-12 start, the Raptors shot 5-of-19 the rest of the way for their usual 35% rate from long distance.

From a ShotQuality perspective, the Heat profile almost identically to the Raptors, only Miami is worse at creating efficient shots on offense, ranking 19th in AdjOFF. Jimmy Butler's guarantees seem hollow after getting dominated by the Hawks on Tuesday, so we'll take the points in something that feels closer to a toss-up, especially given the Bulls' 3-0 season sweep by an average of 10+ points.

Pick: Bulls (+5.5)

(10)Thunder @ (8)Timberwolves (-6, 227.5)

As we hoped, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's big second half in New Orleans got him the attention that he deserves. But Josh Giddey stole some of the limelight as well on Wednesday, while the short-handed Timberwolves played a wild game in Los Angeles where their offense went utterly stagnant late.

Rudy Gobert returns Friday, but in this matchup is that a particularly good thing? In Utah, there were times where he couldn't be used due to unfortunate matchups. Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns will have a tough time chasing around the Thunder's front-court Williams duo of Jaylin and Jalen while protecting the rim from "SGA," especially having not faced the Thunder in the calendar year 2023.

Pick: Thunder (+6)

Nets @ 76ers (-8.5, 214.5)

The Nets avoided the play-in tournament for three reasons:

1. Games won early thanks to star players no longer on the team
2. The ineptitude of the teams below them in the standings
3. Late-season wins over mediocre-to-bad teams like Orlando, Detroit, Utah, Atlanta, Miami, and Houston that kept Brooklyn from a disastrous finish.

It's not the most glowing resume before the Nets go to Philadelphia to take on a team that ranked second and fifth in ShotQuality's adjusted offense and defense, respectively. This has all the makings of a blowout, where an energized Philadelphia crowd pushes Joel Embiid and James Harden - two of the leagues great front-runners - to an easy win.

Pick: 76ers (-8.5)

Hawks @ Celtics (-9, 230.5)

The Hawks were relentless on the offensive glass in Miami and converted that to a significant advantage in points in the paint. That suggests Quin Snyder was able to get his team to raise its level of play for the postseason.

As arguably the best team in the NBA, the Celtics are full value for being favored by nearly double-digits. But we'll trust that Snyder will have his team ready to work again down low against a relatively small Boston lineup, and the Hawks' guard duo of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray can match the scoring of the Celtics' strength on the perimeter, making this game closer than the similarly lined matchup above.

Pick: Hawks (+9)

Warriors @ Kings (PK, 238.5)

We're already on record as being coaxed into the Kings' series price as the rare NBA underdog with home-court advantage, so a pick'em game in the first NBA playoff contest in Sacramento since 2006 is an easy bet to make, if still difficult to win.

The Warriors are well aware they don't need to win this game to take the series, so this might be an energy mismatch in the first half, with Golden State gearing towards stealing Game 2 with a quick turnaround on Monday. Naturally, there isn't much in the way of examples for the Warriors starting an early round series on the road given their usual seeding, but they do have a history of knowing when to fight another day in the rare instances where they are overwhelmed by the energy in the building. Though that usually happens when they already have a commanding series lead, we'll back Sacramento to get an early lead and light the beam, even if any excitement is premature.

Pick: Kings moneyline (-110)

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.