NBA Finals Game 4 player props: Green's struggles to continue vs. Celtics' frontcourt
Draymond Green under 6.5 rebounds (+105)
Green has already drawn plenty of criticism for his lousy line in Game 3 - he had more fouls (six) than points (two), rebounds (four), or assists (three). And while he may not play that poorly again, he's quietly been pretty bad this entire series - especially on the backboards.
While Green's series average (6.7) may seem respectable, that's inflated by an 11-rebound outlier performance in Game 1. In fact, that was the only time the Warriors big grabbed seven or more rebounds in his last seven contests, and he hit that mark just seven times in 19 postseason games (36.8%).
Green played at least 34 minutes in all three Finals games but still finished with five or fewer boards in two straight games, as the Celtics' size down low has clearly overwhelmed the undersized center. He'll be out for blood in Game 4, but that isn't enough to dissuade me from grabbing plus-money odds on a poorly priced prop.
Jaylen Brown over 3.5 assists (-134)
Brown is coming off one of his best performances of this postseason, scoring 27 points on 56.3% shooting in the Celtics' lopsided Game 3 victory. It was clear from the opening quarter that he was in attack mode and that the Warriors' smaller perimeter defenders can't match his size when he rises up from deep.
The best way to thwart Brown in Game 4 would be to double him or at least pressure him at the point of attack, forcing the ball out of his hands early on. That's especially effective since he has a propensity for sloppy turnovers when facing aggressive defensive looks.
If Golden State resorts to throwing extra bodies at him, though, he can make those defenders pay. Brown recorded at least five assists in four of his last five games, with the lone outlier coming in that Game 2 blowout loss when he played a postseason-low 27 minutes ... and still finished with three assists.
The Celtics are favorites in Game 4, and Brown's scoring prowess is a key reason why. I expect the Warriors to force someone other than him or Tatum to beat them, which should mean gaudy assist numbers for both. Brown has the lower total of the two, which makes him an easy play at this number.