Mavericks at Warriors betting preview: Dubs will be too much at home in Game 5
The Warriors had a chance to close this series out in Game 4, but the Mavericks rallied at home to force Thursday's Game 5 in San Francisco.
Here's how we're betting this one:
Mavericks @ Warriors (-7, 215), 9 p.m. ET
For the first time in this conference championship round, the Mavericks finally converted a huge lead into a victory - and even that didn't come easy. The Warriors roared back from a 29-point fourth-quarter deficit and cut it to eight with 3:23 to go. However, they ultimately ran out of gas down the stretch in a game Dallas simply couldn't afford to lose.
The Mavs finally reversed the two trends that doomed them the first three games: rebounding and 3-point shooting. After being outrebounded by at least 13 in each of the first three games, Dallas won the rebounding battle in Game 4 (45-42) and limited Golden State to a series-low six offensive rebounds. Not coincidentally, Warriors center Kevon Looney played a series-low 19 minutes and posted just three points and six rebounds - a far cry from his combined 30 points and 24 rebounds in Game 2 and 3.
Dallas also rediscovered its stroke from deep in Game 4, hitting 20-of-43 triples (46.5%) after shooting 28.9% from three in Game 3. They also continued to limit Golden State in that regard, holding them below 38% for the fourth time in five games behind a relentlessly switchable lineup.
Still, it's not as though the Mavericks shut down the Warriors' offense entirely. Seven players scored in double digits for the Dubs, who relentlessly attacked Luka Doncic from all angles and forced him to expend energy on the defensive end. It should come as no surprise Doncic shot 10-of-26 (38.5%) from the floor and hit just 3-of-11 (27.3%) from deep, even as his teammates lit it up beyond the arc.
That's the formula for the Warriors once again in Game 5: force Doncic to hold his own on the defensive end and carry the load offensively - which is even more taxing given the shoulder injury that has visibly ailed him throughout this series. That approach is also a bet against Dallas' role players maintaining their shooting pace in the ravenous environment of Chase Center.
After the Warriors' win in Dallas in Game 3, multiple players hinted after the game that there was no urgency to close it out in Game 4 and that the team was essentially playing with house money. It looked like it from the opening tip until the final quarter. I expect a drastically different mindset at home, where the Warriors can close out this series and avoid packing for another trip to Dallas - and earn a few days' rest before sparring with the Eastern Conference champions.
Pick: Warriors -7
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.