NBA Wednesday best bets: Bucks, Dubs in prime chalk spots vs. depleted foes

Bart Young / National Basketball Association / Getty

We struck out on our pair of NBA picks against the spread Tuesday. Can we get back on track with Wednesday's jam-packed slate?

Bucks (-6.5, 216.5) @ Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET

The Bucks are ripping off one of the best runs by any team this season, and it feels like nobody is talking about it. Milwaukee has won 10 of its last 11 games and owns the NBA's second-best net rating (+11.5) in that span, trailing only the Warriors (+12.9).

That stretch includes Saturday's 22-point win over the reeling Heat, who haven't been the same since losing star big man Bam Adebayo to a thumb injury. Miami has lost four of five games without him and been outscored by 12.6 points per contest, which includes Monday's 15-point loss to the Grizzlies in Jimmy Butler's return. Expect more of the same in this one.

Pick: Bucks -6.5

Jazz (-6.5, 220) @ Timberwolves, 8 p.m.

We're nearly a third of the way through this NBA season, and the Timberwolves' surprisingly stout defense clearly isn't going anywhere. Minnesota ranks fifth in defensive rating (105.5) and is forcing the most turnovers per game (17.4) while holding opposing teams to just 32.5% from deep, third-best in the league.

The Jazz, meanwhile, have picked it up on the defensive end as of late, holding eight of their last 10 opponents to 108 points or fewer. If they maintain that pace Wednesday and Minnesota's defense continues to wreak havoc along the perimeter, this one will fall comfortably under.

Pick: Under 220

Trail Blazers @ Warriors (-14, 215.5), 10 p.m.

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Trail Blazers, who have lost three straight and enter Wednesday's contest as a shell of their usual selves thanks to a rash of injuries.

Portland will play without Damian Lillard (abdomen) and CJ McCollum (chest) for the second straight game after Monday's 102-90 loss to the Clippers, while key reserves Cody Zeller (quad), Ben McLemore (hip), Anfernee Simons (ankle), and Nassir Little (ankle) are all game-time decisions.

Since 2018, teams laying at least 14 points have gone 58-34 ATS, which includes an 8-5 ATS mark by the Warriors with a perfect run in their last three tries. Stephen Curry and Co. have been stellar all year and should take care of business against their depleted opponents.

Pick: Warriors -14

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.

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NBA Wednesday best bets: Bucks, Dubs in prime chalk spots vs. depleted foes
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