Suns-Bucks Game 4 best bets: Bank on a fast start from Phoenix
The Bucks finally got on the board Sunday, handing the Suns their first loss in 13 days to cut the series deficit to 2-1.
Milwaukee's 120-100 win must have resonated well with the betting markets, who have pushed the Bucks from -3.5 to -4. The total, meanwhile, is down from 221 to 220.5 after the teams snapped a six-game 'over' streak dating back to last season.
Let's break down Wednesday's pivotal Game 4 and dish out a handful of best bets.
Suns @ Bucks (-4, 220.5)
Nobody said the Finals had to be close.
The favorite's covered all three games so far, winning by an average of 14.3 points per contest. The Bucks cashed as 4-point chalk Sunday, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo's second straight game with 40-plus points.
Milwaukee looked more comfortable playing inside Fiserv Forum, its first time at home in 10 days after closing out the semis in Atlanta. The Bucks recorded 28 assists, turned the ball over just nine times, and shot roughly 40% from the perimeter - a huge boost for a 3-point unit that's struggled this postseason.
The Suns, meanwhile, are still the best team in the league against the spread, so there's no surprise that most betting trends support Phoenix. Head coach Monty Williams and Co. are 20-7 against the spread the last 27 following an outright loss, 20-6 ATS after failing to cover, and 4-1 ATS the previous five after a double-digit defeat.
Best ATS teams in the NBA (2020-21)
| Team | Cover Rate |
|---|---|
| Suns | 55-35-1 (61.1%) |
| Knicks | 46-30-1 (60.5%) |
| Jazz | 47-36 (56.6%) |
| Wizards | 44-34-1 (56.4%) |
| Grizzlies | 44-35 (55.7%) |
Not to be outdone, the Suns ranked No. 4 in basketball against the first-half spread during the regular season and No. 3 against the first-quarter line.
Phoenix is a notoriously fast starter, but perhaps playing away from home for the first time in more than 11 days in Game 3, let alone on such a big stage, factored into the 15-point halftime deficit.
The franchise knows it's one complete effort away from taking the series back to the valley and potentially wrapping up the Finals in five. Bettors should bank on a quick start out of the gates from the Suns, who are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the first half this postseason off a loss.
Bet: Suns 1H +2
Player props
Pat Connaughton over 1.5 made threes
Connaughton had been a hit-or-miss 3-point shooter through the first couple rounds of the playoffs but now appears to be settling in. The Notre Dame product canned a pair of triples in Game 3, giving him multiple threes in four straight contests.
Connaughton should turn in another positive night from the perimeter in Game 4, especially if he gets close to the 30 minutes he's been seeing in the Finals.
Deandre Ayton over 0.5 steals
Ayton's balling out this postseason, putting up 16.3 points and 11.9 rebounds per game. He's also quietly been a solid disruptor, recording a steal in seven of the last eight and five combined across the previous two contests.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. Find him on Twitter @AjKolodziej.