Suns-Clippers Game 6 best bets: Play the low total
The Clippers staved off elimination with a 116-102 Game 5 win over the Suns despite missing two key offensive players. With the Western Conference finals headed back to Los Angeles, the early numbers suggest the market expects a close Game 6.
Here's what to look out for Wednesday night.
Suns @ Clippers (+1, 214.5)
The Suns had a golden opportunity to wrap things up in front of their home crowd Monday, but they instead laid an egg. Phoenix was listed as -5.5 chalk with Clippers star Kawhi Leonard sidelined, then jumped to a -6.5 favorite when L.A. ruled Ivica Zubac out just before tipoff.
But the Clippers' ability to trot out a smaller lineup and play without a center for more than 75% of the contest paved driving lanes for their top scorers. The trio of Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, and Paul George feasted, accounting for 85 of L.A.'s 116 points - its highest total so far in the series.
The Suns struggled in transition defense as the Clippers picked them apart early, especially Devin Booker, who allowed 10 field goals on 14 attempts as the primary defender. Deandre Ayton, meanwhile, was limited to just 10 points and three offensive boards, while Chris Paul and Jae Crowder combined to go 0-for-10 from beyond the arc.
Suns head coach Monty Williams wants to play fast in this series, but his club has had trouble dictating the tempo. Both offenses were bottom five in the league in pace during the regular season, and they're averaging just 96.6 possessions per contest over the last three.
Monday's clash went over the total of 213.5 despite another spotty Phoenix performance. Looking ahead to Game 6, the Suns have cashed seven of the last 10 overs after a double-digit loss.
The Clippers, meanwhile, are playing more freely after averaging just 96.3 points per game in Games 3-5. They've gone over the total in five of the last six on one day of rest and five of the last six overall.
Pick: Over 214.5
Player props
Cameron Johnson over 9.5 points + rebounds + assists
While Crowder and Paul struggled from 3-point in Game 5, Johnson provided a spark by draining all three of his attempts. The second-year UNC product has quietly gone over this total in four of his last five, and he's posted at least nine combined points, rebounds, and assists in six straight.
Paul George over 2.5 made threes
George is on a torrid scoring pace, averaging north of 30 points per game in five tilts against the Suns. He's needed to pick up the slack with Leonard sidelined, particularly from the perimeter.
The 31-year-old has averaged 8.1 3-point attempts per game this season when Leonard's out, compared to 7.6 when he's in the lineup. George has already averaged close to 10 attempts so far in the conference finals, drilling three or more in three of five.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. Find him on Twitter @AjKolodziej.