NBA live series odds, best bets

The NBA postseason is already underway, but it's not too late to find values on the series lines. Some bets are even more attractive after the first game - when favorites' prices are shortened or underdogs make their case with a strong showing in the early games.

Check back here each day to see which series we're looking to bet live. We'll add our favorite plays at the top as they develop in the market.

June 1

Trail Blazers to win series vs. Nuggets (-135)

The odds for this series have bounced back and forth so many times that it's making me dizzy, yet we're nearly right back where we started with the Blazers as short favorites over the Nuggets. From what we've seen so far, it's worth playing again.

Portland has been on the dominant end of two of the series' three blowouts thus far, with the lone outlier in this series being Denver's narrow win in Game 3. Nikola Jokic put on a show in both of his team's wins, but he carried a giant load behind somewhat unsustainable shooting metrics at all three levels.

The Blazers shut Jokic down in Game 4 and took advantage of its clear mismatch in the backcourt, too. Home-court advantage still favors the Nuggets, but it isn't enough to offset.

May 27

Hawks to win series vs. Knicks (-140)

So let me get this straight: The Hawks were -125 favorites to win this series before it started, and the Knicks securing home-court advantage was a key selling point to their case as live underdogs. Two games later, with the series tied 1-1 and Atlanta looking like the superior team for most of both matchups, this price has barely moved?

Yes, New York stormed back during Wednesday's win, but it's still noteworthy that Trae Young dominated the Knicks' lauded defense for the better part of three quarters. Conversely, it's hard to imagine Game 2 savior Derrick Rose (26 points) maintaining that level of play across multiple games - especially if the oft-injured guard needs to play 38-plus minutes per night.

It's also notable that the Hawks surged to sizable leads in each of the first two games during this series - which is even more impressive on the road - and that New York's offense needed to find another gear to fight back in both contests. That just isn't a sustainable model for the Knicks moving forward.

May 26

Jazz series wins (-1.5) vs. Grizzlies (-102)

The last time I tried to buy low on a higher seed down 0-1 it ended in disappointment, so perhaps I'm the fool for trying twice. But this feels like a really solid price for an outcome most felt was inevitable just three days ago - the Jazz winning this series in fewer than seven games.

That doesn't sound so hard, right? Utah was easily the NBA's best team this season by net rating (+9.0) and win percentage (.722), and it was without top star Donovan Mitchell during Sunday's three-point loss to the Grizzlies. Mitchell's absence opened the door for Dillon Brooks to lead all scorers (31 points) without the pressure of matching up with Utah's two-way standout.

That'll change on Wednesday, as should Utah's misfortune from deep. The Jazz ranked fourth in 3-point percentage (38.9%) while leading the league in made triples (16.7) this season, but they went just 12-for-47 (25.5%) from beyond the arc in Game 1 - their second-worst showing in 73 games this campaign.

Memphis will be lucky to benefit from Utah putting up another shaky shooting night or Brooks producing a star-level performance again in any game this series - let alone both in one contest. Seven of the last eight No. 1 seeds to lose the first game to a No. 8 seed won the second matchup by an average of 13.3 points, and six of those teams eventually won the series in an average of six games. Don't let one bad outing shake your confidence in the better club.

May 25

Clippers to win series vs. Mavericks (-155)

The Clippers were never going to win this series easily. I predicted in the Western Conference preview that the Mavericks would at least make this clash interesting, as they did a year ago. They already have with a Game 1 win.

Yet it's still tough to believe Los Angeles won't close this team out with a better approach. Luka Doncic scored 16 of his 31 points in Game 1 against center Ivica Zubac, and Kawhi Leonard - who's arguably the league's best wing defender - only guarded him a handful of times. That'll change during Tuesday's contest, which the Clippers are heavily favored to win.

L.A. also missed a handful of wide-open shots in Saturday's loss, while the Mavericks produced their best 3-point shooting night (47.2%) since late April. Simple regression for both sides would spell a Clippers win, likely making today the last time you can get a price so favorable on the higher seed.

May 24

Suns to win series vs. Lakers (-115)

How long are oddsmakers going to shortchange the Suns before finally giving them their due? They haven't done so after Game 1, despite Phoenix dominating most of that contest behind Devin Booker's stellar playoff debut. The performance only further confirmed that this group could win it all - assuming Chris Paul's injury isn't too severe.

The Lakers didn't look right, but that isn't an excuse to bet them anyway. It's one of the many reasons why I loved the Suns coming into this series: L.A. is trying to waltz into the second round despite having two stars at less than 100% and a starting lineup with very little continuity. Simply put, the defending champions have been worse than Phoenix this season, and the Lakers are likely a few weeks away from reaching the peak that books are still pricing them at.

And the club likely doesn't have that long to wait. Teams that win Game 1 of a first-round series move on to the second round 80.2% of the time, while those that win Game 1 as a favorite are 83-22 (79%) in Game 2, which would be a near-death knell for this series. You're getting the better side with a 1-0 lead at near-even odds - don't get cute.

Heat to win series vs. Bucks (+350)

It's hard to understand how someone who watched Game 1 of this series can still see this big of a gap between these two teams. Yes, the Bucks have a 1-0 series lead, but it took an overtime buzzer-beater in a game that featured 16 ties and 17 lead changes. Does that sound like a mismatch to you?

The Heat did what they do best: Fire off threes and wall off the paint, forcing opponents to make more tough shots than Miami can. It nearly worked, but Jimmy Butler (4-for-22) and Bam Adebayo (4-for-15) missed too many shots for their team to survive.

You can make the case that both sides are due for positive or negative regression in this series, depending on where you lean. That alone should suggest a price much tighter than +350 for the underdogs. I know the stats about winning Game 1, but at these odds, I'm willing to go down swinging.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.