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NBA Thursday betting preview: Can Blazers bounce back after OT thriller?

Garrett Ellwood / National Basketball Association / Getty

We posted another 1-1 mark against the spread with Wednesday's NBA picks, including an outright win by the Hawks (+1.5) to close out their series against the Knicks. Here are our favorite bets for Thursday's pair of games:

Nuggets @ Trail Blazers (-5, 227.5)

If Damian Lillard's heroic effort in Game 5 wasn't enough to give the Trail Blazers a win, should you trust them in Game 6? Portland's superstar guard dropped 55 points behind a playoff-record 12 triples - including one to send the game to overtime and another to force double overtime - but they couldn't overcome the Nuggets' efficient shooting marks at all three levels.

How will Tuesday's marathon affect these two squads Thursday? Teams coming off a playoff loss in double overtime and beyond are 5-1 ATS since 2012, a stretch that includes a Nuggets win in these teams' quadruple-overtime thriller in 2019. The Blazers are also 4-1 ATS in their last five following a loss, a run that includes two blowout wins over Denver.

Since drafting Lillard in 2012, Portland is 9-4 ATS after losing a game in which he scores at least 40 points. The Blazers have proven capable of vexing the Nuggets even after a tough loss, so expect Lillard and Co. to bounce back and force Game 7.

Pick: Trail Blazers -5

Suns @ Lakers (-2, 207)

The Lakers are in trouble without Anthony Davis - that much is clear. The Suns wiped the floor with L.A. in Tuesday's 30-point win with Davis sidelined, pushing the defending champions to the brink of elimination.

That doesn't bode well for the Lakers on Thursday. Since 2003, teams in an elimination spot following a 30-point loss or worse are 5-9 ATS, and the Lakers are just the second of those 15 teams to be favored in that elimination game. The other, ironically, was LeBron James' 2017 Cavaliers squad, which eked out a win against the Pacers but lost against the number.

Maybe LeBron has some magic for this moment. Perhaps a potential Davis return could tip the scales. But the Suns have quietly outscored the Lakers by 3.6 points per 100 possessions with Davis on the floor, so even his return might not be enough to help L.A. wrestle back control of this series.

Pick: Suns +2

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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