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NBA Wednesday betting preview: Lakers are overvalued at Wizards

Glenn James / National Basketball Association / Getty

We struck out on our two NBA picks against the spread Tuesday, with both favorites losing outright. Ouch. Let's get back on track with a full Wednesday slate.

Magic @ Cavaliers (-3.5, 209.5)

When a total is this low, it should catch your attention. Games with a total below 210 are 21-5-2 (80.8%) to the under this season and have been better than 50% in each of the last seven seasons.

It's especially interesting given the two teams involved in this one, as the Cavaliers and Magic rank 28th and 29th in offensive rating, respectively. Cleveland has scored 105 points or fewer in six of its last eight games, while Orlando is averaging 103.5 points per game since trading away leading scorer Nikola Vucevic on March 25.

These two teams are a combined 12-2 to the under in games with a total below 210, with both averaging fewer than 97 points per game in those contests. Bet on another low-scoring affair Wednesday.

Pick: Under 209.5

Lakers (-1.5, 228) @ Wizards

Are we sure this version of the Lakers is better than the Wizards? Monday's overtime loss to the Spurs snapped Washington's eight-game win streak, but it's still riding a 10-1-2 ATS run with the NBA's sixth-best net rating (plus-5.0) in that stretch.

Los Angeles ranks 16th over that same span and has lost three of its last four games ATS - including all three contests with star Anthony Davis back in the lineup. He's managed just 13 points per game on 34.1% shooting, which includes a miserable 1-for-11 from deep.

Until Davis returns to form, the Lakers aren't a trustworthy bet - especially as road favorites.

Pick: Wizards +1.5

Hornets @ Celtics (-8, 216.5)

Look, I get it. You feel burned by the Celtics, who lost to the Thunder as 11-point favorites Tuesday. We feel burned, too. But this spot is one worth playing with a (mostly) healthy Boston lineup.

Of the 110 double-digit favorites we've seen this season, only 10 of them have lost outright after Tuesday's result. The previous nine went 5-4 ATS in their next game and outscored their opponent by an average of 12.3 points per contest - a number that jumps to 14.8 when only including the eight teams favored in their next game.

The Celtics are rightfully favored against a Hornets team missing Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball, and Malik Monk, while the C's welcome back Jayson Tatum after a night off. That should make all the difference in this one.

Pick: Celtics -8

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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