NBA title futures: 3 value bets for the second half

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Matthew Stockman / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The NBA regular season is back in action Wednesday as the league prepares for the second half. Five contenders are in a tier of their own atop the title odds, spearheaded by the Lakers and Nets, but is there any value lower down the list?

Let's look over the field and find a couple of long shots worthy of a flier.

Odds to win the 2020-21 title

Team Odds
Lakers +160
Nets +250
Clippers +600
Bucks +600
Jazz +600
76ers +1600
Nuggets +2200
Heat +2500
Celtics +2800
Suns +3000
Raptors +4000
Mavericks +5000
Pacers +5000
Trail Blazers +6500
Spurs +7000
Warriors +8000
Pelicans +10000
Hawks +12500
Wizards +15000
Hornets +20000
Grizzlies +20000
Bulls +25000
Rockets +25000
Magic +25000
Kings +25000
Knicks +40000
Cavaliers +50000
Pistons +50000
Thunder +50000
Timberwolves +50000

Nuggets (+2200)

The West is loaded, but I'll take a slice of the Nuggets at this price.

They entered the break 21-15 and sixth in the conference despite playing the fourth-toughest schedule overall. Their .684 expected winning percentage relative to their actual win percentage (.514) is the largest discrepancy in the NBA, which means Denver should start seeing more success. That's especially feasible considering the Nuggets draw the fifth-easiest slate from here on out.

Denver's currently in the top five in points per game, field-goal percentage, and 3-point percentage, while its defense ranks No. 7 in both points per contest and 3-point percentage allowed. With the Nuggets expected to get healthier this month, they're a buy at better than 20-1.

Raptors (+4000)

Not a lot has gone right for the Raptors this season. They started 1-6 out of the gates, enter the second half just 17-19, and they're tied for the East's final playoff spot.

However, their .552 expected win percentage would be the NBA's ninth-best mark, good for a 20-16 record. Toronto's notably come up short in close games this season, going just 2-5 in contests decided by four points or fewer.

The second-half schedule isn't easy - the Raptors draw the eighth-toughest slate - but I'll buy low on a squad rife with experience.

Grizzlies (+20000)

No, I don't think the Grizzlies are ready to challenge the Lakers or Clippers in a seven-game series - Memphis doesn't even own a playoff spot right now. But if you're looking for one serious long shot, this is it, folks.

The Grizzlies were a big winner in the first half. They played one of the 10 toughest schedules and weathered the storm, going 16-16 while suffering the second-most injuries in the league. Advanced metrics thought Memphis was deserving of another win, too, giving the team an expected record of 17-15.

Nobody has yet to run away with the Southwest, as the Mavericks, Pelicans, and Rockets all got off to sluggish starts. With the Grizzlies drawing an easier path of opponents in the second half, they could very well sneak into the playoff picture.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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