NBA weekend betting preview: Clippers will expose Knicks' defense
The first weekend since August without NFL action is also a fantastic week to bet on the NBA, which features 24 games over the next three days. Here are a few of our favorite plays on the schedule:
76ers (-7.5, N/A) at Timberwolves
Jan. 29, 8 p.m. ET
The Minnesota Timberwolves have lost 13 of their first 17 games while being outscored by an average of 9.7 points, which is by far the worst margin in the league. They've also lost five of their last seven against the spread, including consecutive losses to the Golden State Warriors by a combined 34 points.
The Philadelphia 76ers are significantly better than the Warriors. Philly has disappointed against inferior competition this year but benefits from a juicy matchup in this one, with MVP candidate Joel Embiid going against Minnesota's depleted and defensively challenged frontcourt.
Nets (-8.5, 230) at Thunder
Jan. 29, 8 p.m.
The NBA's most intriguing offense has been worth the price of admission, ranking third in points per 100 possessions (116.7) since James Harden's first game with the Brooklyn Nets on Jan. 16. That stretch also lines up with the team's ridiculous 11-1 run to the over, during which Brooklyn and its opponents have combined for an average of 238.7 points per game.
The Nets should be in for another barn burner against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who rank 21st in defensive rating and have allowed 117 points per game in their last seven contests. This game is also the first for Harden and Kevin Durant as teammates against the team that drafted them - Durant has scored more points against the Thunder (31.9) than any other team in his career, and Harden has averaged 28.3 points against them, his fifth-most against any team.
Mavericks at Jazz (-4, N/A)
Jan. 29, 10 p.m.
Are the Utah Jazz quietly putting together the best run of any team this season? They are the only group ranked in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency, and only the Milwaukee Bucks also rank in the top 10 in both areas. That balance has helped fuel an NBA-best 13-5 ATS record, which includes a 10-game ATS win streak and a 7-0 ATS record at home in January.
It's hard to isolate just one thing that Utah does well, but creating high-value scoring opportunities is high on the list. The Jazz rank second in offensive rebound rate (30.3%), which helps set up extra looks for shooters - they're hitting 39.7% from three and have attempted 47.3% of their shots from the perimeter, both ranking second in the league.
The Dallas Mavericks have benefitted from playing poor shooting teams early in the year, but they've been mediocre at actually preventing attempts from deep. They're also below average on the boards and have struggled to replicate the offensive magic that carried them a year ago. If they can't find that on Friday, they'll be hard-pressed to keep pace with Utah's volume and efficiency.
Lakers at Celtics (N/A)
Jan. 30, 8:30 p.m.
I don't envy the Boston Celtics' task of facing the Los Angeles Lakers after their surprising loss to the Detroit Pistons on Thursday as seven-point favorites. Since Dec. 29, teams coming off an outright loss when giving at least seven points are 11-4 ATS, outscoring their opponents by 10.1 points per game in the encore.
Los Angeles is 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss and has suffered three consecutive defeats just once since Dec. 25, 2019. Anthony Davis won't be in action in this one, but don't let that scare you away - the Lakers are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games when LeBron James is active and Davis isn't.
Clippers at Knicks (N/A)
Jan. 31, 1 p.m.
The New York Knicks' run as a surprise team with elite defensive upside is due for a swift and unceremonious ending. Though they still rank sixth in defensive rating, much of that can be attributed to luck; New York has allowed 20.4 wide-open 3-points attempts per game, third-most in the league, but opponents are shooting an NBA-worst 31% on those shots.
Don't expect a similar result against the Los Angeles Clippers, who lead the league in 3-point percentage on all attempts (41.8%), on shots with a defender within four-to-six feet (41.8%), and on wide-open tries (43.5%). They also rank fourth in percentage of assisted threes (88.6%), which should test the Knicks' vulnerable perimeter defense.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.