NBA Finals Game 6 betting preview: Lakers can't buy a cover
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The pressure is building in the NBA Finals. The Heat survived an insane back-and-forth Game 5 on Wednesday against the Lakers to extend the series.
Will the confetti fall Sunday, or do the Heat force a Game 7? Here's all the betting info you need for today.
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-5, 214.5)
The market's got some faith in Miami. Back in Game 2, when Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic were unavailable, the Heat were catching double digits. A couple wins later, Miami's down to a cheap +5.
The Lakers haven't done much to garner support, either: They haven't covered since Game 1.
The total continues to dive as the series gets deeper. Bettors were expecting a lower-scoring game Wednesday, but the two clubs soared comfortably over.
The case for Miami
Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra said in his postgame interview that guys like Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro were "sticks of dynamite," alluding to the array of Heat players who could go off at any point. Friday's firecracker was the seasoned vet, Jimmy Butler, who went blow-for-blow with LeBron James en route to a 35-point triple-double, his second in three games.
The balanced scoring has been on display all series, whereas Los Angeles has been carried primarily by the star duo of James and Anthony Davis. After getting 35 from Butler and 26 from undrafted free agent Duncan Robinson in Game 5, you truly never know who's going to get hot.
The case for Los Angeles
This comes down to value more than it does Xs and Os.
The Game 6 spread features one of the cheapest prices of the series so far. The Lakers have been, on average, a seven-point favorite and have peaked as high as -10.5. Although Davis was hampered by an injury in Game 5 and Miami has the momentum, this is the optimal buy-low spot.
Plus, as mentioned the other day, James has never allowed a series he was up 3-1 in to go seven.
Notable betting trends
- Miami is 4-0 ATS the last four as a 'dog
- Miami is 16-5 ATS the last 21 overall
- Miami is 11-4 ATS the last 15 following an ATS win
- Miami is 10-3 to the under the last 13 against teams with winning records
- Miami is 5-2 the last seven NBA Finals games
- Los Angeles is 2-5-1 ATS the last eight following a straight-up loss
- Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS the last four
- Los Angeles is 9-4 to the over the last 13 following a straight-up loss
- Los Angeles is 8-2 to the under the last 10 NBA Finals games
(Odds source: theScore Bet).
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.