Lakers-Rockets betting preview: Defenses flying under the radar
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There's only one game to bet on the hardwood Thursday, but it's a doozy.
Here's everything you need to know for Game 4 between the Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets.
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-5, 218.5)
The early money was on the Rockets and the under. The spread originally opened 5.5 before dropping to 5; the total's dipped two full points after opening 220.5.
We recommended the game under and the Lakers' team total under in Game 3, both of which cashed. This series is rife with star power, but the pace has been unconventionally stagnant.
The Rockets played at the second-fastest tempo in the league during the regular season, while the Lakers were No. 11. But both offenses enter Thursday's action running at under 100 possessions per game in the postseason, ultimately suppressing the scoring.
That starts with the Lakers' transition defense.
The Rockets can't get anything on the fast break - they're averaging fewer than eight points in transition per game in this series, roughly half of their normal average this season. That helped Los Angeles win and cover in a low-scoring Game 3.
Could rhythm be impacting the Lakers' performance this postseason? If bettors recall, they dropped the opener to the Trail Blazers in the quarterfinals, then lost to Houston in Game 1 despite having added rest.
Otherwise, they've been seemingly perfect.
Los Angeles is 5-0 against the spread when playing on one day's rest - typically the postseason format. Houston, on the other hand, has been dreadful on one day's rest, going just 1-6 ATS over its the last seven.
Best bet - Under 218.5
Continue to keep the under in mind. Games around the league are getting tighter, and offenses are losing the luxury of playing in a free-flowing climate. Scoring was way up in the bubble, but defenses are feeling the playoff intensity.
The Lakers have cashed 12 of the last 16 games after they register a win. The Rockets are 4-0 to the under following an ATS loss, 12-3 to the under when playing on one day's rest, and 11-3 to the under following an outright loss.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.