NBA weekly betting preview: Can anyone stop Lillard?

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Each week of the NBA season, we'll highlight some of the top betting angles and plays on the schedule. Here are some tips heading into this week's slate.

Note: Lines for Tuesday and beyond are released later in the week.

Monday

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat (-2.5, 212)

There are two spots I simply can't seem to resist this season: playing Miami at home and fading Philadelphia on the road. The two will converge on Monday, with the Heat's 15-8-1 home record against the spread facing the Sixers' 9-17 ATS road mark.

This pick is more a fade of Philly, which has dropped eight of its last nine road games ATS and hasn't seemed to regain its form with Joel Embiid back in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Heat look as deep as ever in the frontcourt after Meyers Leonard's big day on Saturday, which could be the matchup that swings Monday's result.

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers (-9.5, 227.5)

The Clippers should have their full cast of characters healthy against Kawhi Leonard's original team, and a healthy squad has paid dividends of late. Los Angeles is riding a 9-2 ATS stretch with Leonard and Paul George active, averaging a 10.9 margin of victory in those 11 games.

The Spurs erased a late 19-point deficit to beat the Hornets on Saturday, but they won't be able to overcome a similarly bad start at Staples Center on Monday. San Antonio is also 6-15 ATS this year following an outright win, the worst mark in the NBA.

Tuesday

Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets

In case you've missed it amid the Super Bowl festivities, Damian Lillard has been a man possessed of late, and he's showing no signs of slowing down. Lillard's averaged a whopping 48.8 points, 10.2 assists, 7.2 rebounds, and 8.2 made threes over his last SIX games, with three 50-point outings and five wins for the Blazers during that run.

That stretch also includes four straight ATS wins heading into Tuesday's road tilt with the Nuggets, who are 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games versus teams with losing records. It's hard to see Lillard maintaining this level of brilliance, but he's hot enough to take the points on the road in a favorable spot.

Wednesday

Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder

It almost doesn't matter what the number is for this game - it won't be high enough. Oddsmakers have consistently undervalued this Thunder team, which is an NBA-best 33-16-1 ATS (67.3%) with seven wins in its last eight games.

The Cavaliers are, predictably, not so good, and they're really only profitable as an over play (13-4 since Jan. 2). OKC's defense is playing well, so the safer bet is to expect another Cleveland dud against a legitimately good team.

Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics

Two of the hottest under teams in the league will meet in Boston, with the Celtics riding a 5-0-1 under streak and the Magic sporting a 7-1 under run. For Boston, the unders have coincided with a 6-1 ATS record; for Orlando, it's been a 1-7 ATS mark.

That's because the Magic's under recipe hasn't been great defense - they're 22nd in defensive rating since Jan. 16 when the aforementioned run began. Instead, their 29th-ranked offense has dragged their totals to the cellar. So, the play here is to fade Orlando's team total and ATS odds while staying away from a volatile game total at a likely low number.

Thursday

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers

It's admittedly hard to handicap this Lakers team right now, as we saw on Thursday when they lost outright as 12.5-point favorites. At least a bounce-back win on Saturday and an easy spot against San Antonio on Tuesday bodes well for their chances versus an inconsistent Houston squad here.

The Rockets have dropped seven of their last nine road games ATS and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests against teams with winning records. If the Lakers are present for Thursday's game - and that's a big "if" - it's a solid spot to show their mettle.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.