NBA weekend betting preview: Thunder in strong spot at home
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Each week of the NBA season, we'll highlight some of the top betting angles and plays on the schedule. Here are some tips heading into this weekend's slate.
Note: Lines for Saturday and beyond are released later in the week.
Friday
Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns (-2.5, 217.5)
One of the most profitable spots through the first half of the NBA season has been fading short home favorites, who give points but are often viewed by oddsmakers as inferior to their visiting opponents. Home favorites of -2.5 or shorter are 13-36 against the spread (26.5%) with a 2-8 ATS record since Christmas Day.
This trend applies perfectly to the Suns, who have lost 11 of their last 14 games outright and are still trying to find the right rotation. The Magic, meanwhile, have rediscovered their defensive identity amid a 4-1 ATS run and four-game under streak.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers (-14, 221.5)
The Warriors stayed within the number Wednesday as the season's biggest home underdogs, but they could struggle to keep pace with a Clippers squad boasting a full complement of stars coming off four days' rest.
Home favorites of at least 14 points are 37-12 ATS (75.5%) since the start of the 2018-19 season. Los Angeles has covered eight of its last 11 games against teams with losing records and should continue home favorites' success Friday.
Saturday
New Orleans Pelicans at Boston Celtics
The. Pelicans. Just. Keep. Winning. Their streak is now up to eight games against the number, including three outright wins as underdogs. They'll be tested on the second night of a back-to-back against a rested Celtics team, but road 'dogs in that spot are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games. Boston has also dropped four straight ATS at home as it reintegrates its full rotation of healthy players.
Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder
This is a really nice spot for the Thunder, who are already stellar bets amid a 9-1-1 ATS stretch. The Lakers could be without Anthony Davis - whose last absence spelled an L.A. loss as a road favorite at Indiana - and they'll be on the second leg of a back-to-back after facing Luka Doncic's Mavericks on Friday. Circle this one, especially if Oklahoma City gets points at home; it's 6-1 ATS in that spot.
Sunday
Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets
Everyone who bets the Nuggets knows their longstanding reputation as a sterling home squad. So what's the deal with their 6-11-2 ATS home record that includes a dismal 0-5-1 ATS stretch since Dec. 15? The Clippers are riding a 7-2 ATS road run and could take advantage if oddsmakers give home court too much respect.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.