NBA weekend betting preview: Back resurgent Kings

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The MVP conversation is heating up, with three of the top candidates in the messy Western Conference. The Lakers, Rockets, and Mavericks are all riding award front-runners to firm playoff standing, while the bottom has officially fallen out for the Warriors. Can we believe in this year's contenders?

Each week, we'll highlight the top betting angles and plays on the schedule. Here are some tips heading into this weekend's slate.

Note: Lines for Saturday and beyond are released later in the week.

Friday

Sacramento Kings at Brooklyn Nets (-1.5, 215.5)

The Kings got off to a disastrous start after a taxing offseason travel schedule, but they seem to have their legs under them now. Sacramento has won six of its last eight games with a stellar 8-0 run against the spread, including back-to-back outright wins against the Celtics and Suns.

Still, bookmakers are still pricing the team as an underdog Friday against the Nets, who have looked inept with and without Kyrie Irving. The star guard will likely miss his fourth straight game, leaving Jarrett Allen and Spencer Dinwiddie to carry the load. The surging Kings should take care of business.

Miami Heat (-4.5, 216.5) at Chicago Bulls

While casual bettors are chasing the big-name teams from the offseason, smart bettors are riding the Heat, who are 10-3 ATS this year and a perfect 7-0 ATS as favorites ahead of Saturday's tilt with the uninspiring Bulls.

Chicago has been blown out three times in its last six games and ranks last in offensive rating, which is a massive issue against a third-ranked Miami defense loaded with perimeter stoppers. The Bulls are just 25-32-2 (43.9%) as underdogs under Jim Boylen and would have to play to another level to have a shot Friday in what should be a low-scoring game.

Saturday

Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers

Don't let Orlando's recent offensive success spoil an under match made in heaven. The Magic's offense ranked last for much of the year, but the team bolstered its offensive rating after small outbursts against opponents like the Grizzlies, Spurs, and Wizards, who all rank among the six worst defenses by points per possession.

Now the Magic face the Pacers, whose defense joins them in the top 10 in defensive rating but who rank among the worst teams in relevant shooting metrics - from true shooting to 3-point percentage. Both squads rely heavily on inside scoring and feature stout interior defenses. Anybody else smelling under?

This total will likely be south of 220, which is good news for under bettors: Totals below that mark are 54-41-2 (56.8%) to the under this year. Bet under on game totals and player props where you can.

Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have been an absolute mess since losing John Collins to a suspension, dropping six of nine ATS with one of the worst stretches in recent memory this past week. Toronto has been hit hard by injuries, but Pascal Siakam has lifted his squad to a 10-4 record straight up and ATS, with six covers in the last seven games.

Everything about this game suggests another win for the Raptors. The Hawks' defense can't stop anybody from outside, while Toronto features the best 3-point percentage in the league on the third-most makes. Meanwhile, Atlanta's offense has stunted with poor shooting and turnovers. The Raps' rangy perimeter defense should suffocate Trae Young and Co. in a comfortable win.

Sunday

Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets

Two MVP candidates collide when Luka Doncic and James Harden lead the in-state rivals against into Sunday's marquee game. Anybody got the over?

The Rockets have actually been strong under bets during Harden's scintillating scoring stretch, though high totals have played a role. It largely depends on whether oddsmakers keep this game in the high 220s/low 230s. If it climbs too high for an over play, lay a bit on Houston, which is 33-21-1 ATS (61.1%) against teams above .500 since the start of last season.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.