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Converting hype into dollars could be tougher for Zion than LeBron

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Former Nike and Adidas impresario Sonny Vaccaro made headlines in April when he said that Zion Williamson's shoe endorsement might go down as the biggest in basketball history. The number $100 million was being tossed around.

"Sitting here at this age and watching 50 years of it, Zion has made me feel like it's 1984," Vaccaro told ESPN's Nick DePaula. "I'm serious."

Though Williamson is the most hyped prospect since LeBron James, a few factors may prevent him from maximizing the value of that hype, including a shifting shoe market and the fact he'll play for the New Orleans Pelicans. When it comes to memorabilia, however, card companies and retailers could quickly capitalize on the buzz.

The basketball apparel industry was very much in its ascension when James entered the league, noted Matt Powell, a senior sports industry advisor for market research firm The NPD Group. LeBron's first contract with Nike for a reported $90 million, signed even before the 2003 draft, was stunning.

But basketball shoe sales in the United States have been trending down for four years, Powell said. At the same time, sales in China have been rising. If these trajectories don't change, Powell’s research indicates that basketball shoe sales in China will eclipse those in the United States in the next half-decade.

A soft stateside market might prevent Williamson from getting the stratospheric shoe deal some predicted, but the growth of the Chinese market could also play in his favor. Nike will have to contend not just with Adidas, Under Armour, and New Balance, but with Chinese brands such as Anta and Li-Ning.

"Nike still has more than 75 percent of the market, but if you want to be legit in that marketplace, you've got to have athletes playing in your shoes," Powell said. "As we saw with Puma signing Marvin Bagley; or New Balance signing Kawhi Leonard; Klay Thompson and Kevin Garnett playing in Antas; Dwyane Wade in Li-Nings last year. This is the table stakes. You've got to step up if you want to play."

Had a team like the New York Knicks or Los Angeles Lakers ended up with the first pick this year, giving Williamson one of the bigger platforms in sports, an earth-shattering deal would be more likely.

"Him going to New Orleans is a blow here," Powell said. "There's no question that large markets move more product - the East Coast more so than anywhere else. Had he gone to the Knicks, it would've been a much different merchandise story than going to what's not a really strong basketball market."

Jesse D. Garrabrant / National Basketball Association / Getty

While it's difficult to gauge Williamson's potential apparel deal, Mitch Guttenberg says the basketball card market is hotter than ever. Guttenberg has owned and operated sports-card stores for nearly two decades, and now owns The Bullpen in Los Angeles.

He agrees that there's more pre-draft hype around Williamson than anyone since LeBron, and said he's getting multiple calls a day regarding Williamson's first NBA cards, which should debut soon.

James helped the basketball card market explode in 2003. After Upper Deck signed him to an exclusive autograph deal, rookie cards bearing his signature commanded thousands of dollars. With the introduction of the $500-per-pack Exquisite series - a product that shifted the collectibles market - James' rookie cards sold for more than anybody's since Michael Jordan. The James Exquisite Rookie Patch Autograph card (which features a swatch of jersey and a signature and was limited to 99 copies) goes for nearly six figures.

Williamson's first autograph cards could top $1,000 upon release, with limited editions of his 2019-20 Panini National Treasures rookie cards potentially selling for mid-five figures. Some versions of Luka Doncic's 2018-19 National Treasures cards, including a jersey swatch and an autograph and limited to 20 copies, are more expensive than a new car.

And Zion's hype blows Doncic out of the water.

"It's always just been the athleticism," Guttenberg said. "He's just a freak. He's the closest to Adonis since LeBron. During the draft lottery, I was on the phone with someone from Panini, and they were praying - praying! - he'd go to New York or Los Angeles."

For people in and around New Orleans, though, Williamson's arrival is a revelation. That includes Mark Channing, who's got another reason to be happy about the lottery results: He owns Markman Sports Cards in Metairie, La.

"Put it this way: When (Anthony) Davis was leaving, no one gave a crap about the Pelicans," Channing said, "and now it's very exciting."

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