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Have the Rockets already squandered their chance against the Warriors?

Andrew D. Bernstein / NBA / Getty Images

All the Golden State Warriors have done in their Western Conference semifinal series against Houston is hold serve at home, so why does it feel like the Rockets have already blown their chance at redemption after waiting a year to get another crack at the champs?

Houston entered the series with an unusual rest advantage. The Rockets dusted the Utah Jazz in five games in the first round, while less than 40 hours separated the end of Golden State's first-round Game 6 triumph over the Los Angeles Clippers and the tip of their second-round series. That's about as close to a back-to-back as a team will face during the playoffs. To make matters worse, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson exited the L.A. series hobbled by ankle injuries, keeping their Game 1 status in doubt until just before tip-off.

Yet the Rockets dug an early hole in Game 1 at Oracle Arena and ultimately lost 104-100. Almost the same script played out two nights later, as the Warriors again took a nine-point lead into the second quarter of Game 2. Again, Houston ended up losing a two-possession game, 115-109.

It's not just a rest advantage the Rockets have failed to capitalize on.

With DeMarcus Cousins out of the lineup, Houston was supposed to be able to exploit Golden State inside and on the glass. If there's one actual basketball advantage the Rockets have over the Warriors, it's size. That, too, has yet to materialize.

A Warriors team that ranked 23rd in offensive rebound rate this season has collected an astronomical 34.4 percent of available offensive boards through two games. Through Tuesday, no other team in the second round had even cracked the 29-percent barrier.

All those multiple-shot possessions are adding up, too, as the Warriors scored 34 second-chance points in Game 1 and 2 combined. You're already playing with fire on every defensive possession against a team featuring Curry, Thompson, and Kevin Durant. Giving the Warriors an abundance of these opportunities is akin to juggling grenades.

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No Rocket has been more disappointing in this regard than starting center Clint Capela, who looks closer to being played off the floor right now than the big man who was supposed to have a size advantage in this series.

Rockets in Round 2 Minutes Net Rating
Capela on 60 -27.2
Capela off 36 +26.2

In just under 60 minutes against the Warriors, Capela is averaging nine points, eight rebounds, two assists, and one block. Though he's made six of his nine field-goal attempts, the issue is that he's only taken nine shots through two games.

Capela is far from Houston's offensive fulcrum, but for a big who averaged nearly 11 shots per game during the regular season and eight per contest during the first round, it's been strange to see him so utterly uninvolved offensively.

Not all of that falls on Capela's shoulders. The nature of his offense comes from James Harden's lob passes and the odd putback, but against the Warriors, Harden's passes have either been off target or expertly defended. Thompson memorably intercepted one that was thrown too far ahead of Capela in the fourth quarter of Game 2.

Still, the big man's not helping his cause by getting ambushed on the glass. His individual defensive rebound rate of 21.1 percent in the second round measures lower than guards like Khris Middleton, Terry Rozier, and Fred VanVleet. The Rockets need to do a better job helping Capela clean the defensive glass, but the biggest guy on the court also needs to do his job.

All that said, debating whether the Rockets "blew it" in Game 1 and 2 may be disingenuous and does a disservice to the Warriors' greatness. The team we all understand to be the superior one is playing like it. Rest and size disadvantages be damned, Steve Kerr's Warriors are simply leveraging their exceptional talent.

Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images

The "Hamptons Five" lineup of Curry, Thompson, Durant, Andre Iguodala, and Draymond Green has logged 48 minutes together through two games - 22 more minutes than any other five-man combination (on either team) has logged - and the results have been offensively overwhelming.

Warriors Game 1-2 Minutes ORtg eFG% OReb% Net Rating per 100 poss.
The Hamptons 5 48 129.7 66.7 29.4 +15.8

Golden State's best lineup is a plus-16 in 48 minutes together. Any other Warriors' combination is a minus-6 in the same amount of time. You can almost picture Kerr and his coaching staff studying the Warriors' perceived weaknesses in a matchup against Houston, and chuckling to themselves as they roll this lineup out over and over again, inviting the Rockets to even try beating it.

Curry has yet to shoot the ball well, but he's been an inspired perimeter defender; Thompson has been a two-way menace while hounding Chris Paul; Green has been as awesome defensively through two games as we've seen him all year - the former Defensive Player of the Year appears to have reached the height of his powers again just in time to anchor a defense built to ground the Rockets.

Iguodala - whose absence in the final three games of last year's West final is often forgotten when Paul's absence in Game 6 and 7 is referenced - has done an admirable job on Harden, sliding back into the Warriors' starting lineup to pester the MVP candidate. Getting 30 points on 12-of-16 shooting from Iguodala is merely icing.

And then there's Durant, the two-time reigning Finals MVP, carrying the Warriors home.

He's averaging 34.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.3 blocks on 53-41-91 shooting through eight playoff games. If the "Hamptons Five" lineup is basketball death, then Durant really is The Slim Reaper, coming to collect what's left of your soul.

And so it goes, after waiting a year to avenge their heartbreaking 2018 conference finals demise, the Rockets find themselves on the ropes again as the Warriors rain haymakers upon them. Whether you believe the Rockets have brought this on themselves or chalk it up to the Warriors' greatness, the fact is this: Houston now finds itself in the precarious position of needing to beat the Warriors four times in five games, including at least once at Oracle.

No wonder Mike D'Antoni's laughter seemed so anxious and uncomfortable when the Rockets were first presented with the realities of this rematch.

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