Draft bust: Why the 2014 class might be the most disappointing in history

"Incredible depth could make 2014 the best (class) ever," boldly declared ESPN's page title for draftnik Chad Ford's November 2013 preview of the following June's NBA draft.

"Our initial 2014 Big Board is one of the most talent-laden I've ever seen," Ford remarked. "There are as many as five to eight future All-Stars in this group."

And Ford wasn't alone in his opinion that 2014 was a future all-time class, one that would eventually join the ranks of the 1984, 1996, and 2003 groups. "Breaking Down Why 2014 NBA Draft Class Will Be One of Best in History," proclaimed a Bleacher Report deep dive from summer 2013. "The 2014 NBA Draft Will Crush the 2013 Draft," predicted a June headline from Adam Zagoria of Sheridan Hoops.

Even an underwhelming college season didn't change the prevailing wisdom that the 2014 draft would be strong enough to compensate for a historically weak 2013 class.

If anything, the reverse has proven to be true four years later. Ford's projection that the class will produce five to eight All-Stars is still four to seven All-Stars short - Joel Embiid became the class' first midseason classic nominee last week. Meanwhile, the '13 class has now produced two All-Stars (Victor Oladipo and Giannis Antetokounmpo) and an All-NBA honoree in Rudy Gobert, while the '15 class now also boasts a pair of nominees in Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis.

The 2014 class doesn't exactly feature a ton of obvious players who are just a year away from elite status, either. No. 1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins has disappointed in his fourth season after proving divisive at best in his first three. Though No. 2 pick Jabari Parker has shown scoring promise, he's missed about half his pro career due to tearing his left ACL twice.

Injuries have largely sidelined No. 5 pick Dante Exum as well. Fellow top 10 picks Noah Vonleh and Nik Stauskas have failed to establish themselves as more than marginal rotation players, and Marcus Smart and Julius Randle have proven to be valuable contributors but not yet reliable starters. Even Embiid, the class' obvious premier talent, has yet to play 70 career games, while teammate and No. 12 pick Dario Saric is just barely into triple digits.

The numbers mostly bear out 2014's lousiness when compared with the previous and following years' draft class. Check out the combined win shares for the top 10 draftees, and then the lottery draftees, in each of those three classes.

Of course, each draft class has more win shares than the one that follows it because the earlier class has had an extra year to accrue them. But look how much steeper the drop is between 2013 and 2014 than 2014 and 2015: The difference between '14 and '15 is practically negligible, whereas '13 and '14 are worlds apart.

With Embiid, Saric, and hopefully Parker playing more games; the possibility that the likes of Magic starters Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon will continue to evolve; and a potential Chicago revival for high-scoring wing athlete Zach LaVine, it's possible that the 2014 group could still make a surge. But so far, it's being soundly outperformed by the '13 class, which has produced an MVP candidate in Antetokounmpo, a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Gobert, and an emerging superstar in Oladipo.

If the 2014 class is going to redeem itself, its saviors may have to come from farther down its ranks. Behind Embiid, the class' most productive player to date is likely second-rounder Nikola Jokic, a potential All-Star in a less competitive conference.

Spencer Dinwiddie and Jordan Clarkson have turned out to be second-round steals, while late first-rounders Gary Harris, Clint Capela, and even Shabazz Napier are becoming crucial cogs in likely postseason-bound teams. The guys are there, possibly - they're just not the players who were supposed to make the draft all that.

Really, the 2014 class just proves how foolish it is to make big-picture claims about a draft crop in advance. Even if the '14 group eventually justifies the hype, the players that do so will be almost entirely unexpected. Meanwhile, the surest bet in the top five is a guy that several teams wouldn't have touched out of fear he'd never even get on the court.

It's also possible the '13 class we all badmouthed at the time will ultimately prove subpar. Even if it does, however, the players selected 1-10 will be more to blame than those taken 11-20.

You can't properly judge a draft class until at least five or six years on, and you definitely can't do it a year before - so tank (or not) accordingly, 2017-18 NBA teams.

(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)