It's already time for the Heat to panic
On Sunday, before last night's overtime loss to the Timberwolves dropped their record to 2-4, the Miami Heat called a team meeting to address their sluggish start. Though it's too early to project a second straight 11-30 season-opening slide, it's impossible to ignore how quickly a season can slip away.
That's why the Heat would be right to hit the panic button, even though Hassan Whiteside's day-to-day absence with a bone bruise in his knee provides the team with some cover for their struggles.
The Heat currently claim the 19th-ranked offensive rating - points per 100 possessions - and the 23rd-ranked defensive rating. It would be reassuring if Whiteside's return after a five-game absence would be enough to right the ship, but bigger issues than his absence haunt this team. Namely, perimeter defense.
The Heat have allowed opponents to shoot 40.8 percent on 3-point shots (second highest in the league), and 46.1 percent on set shots overall. The starting backcourt of Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters has been especially weak on the perimeter. With both on the floor together for 25.7 minutes each night, the opposition has shot 41.1 percent on 3-pointers, per NBAwowy.
Ironically, even with noted shot-blocker Whiteside out of action, the strength of the Heat defense has been inside: It's held opponents to just 57.7 percent shooting within 6 feet of the hoop, the seventh-lowest rate in the league. But one has to wonder whether Whiteside's return could indirectly have an adverse impact on the defense, encouraging opponents to jack up 3-pointers at a higher rate, especially when all it takes is a well-timed screen on Dragic or Waiters to open up a (barely contested) look from long range.
In the year 2017, having great rim protection but porous 3-point defense is akin to putting an alarm on your back porch and leaving your front door wide open.
Using Josh Richardson and Tyler Johnson to stagger the minutes of Dragic and Waiters would patch up the perimeter defense, but requires the concession that the front office invested over 30 percent of the team's salary cap over the next four years in a pair of players who aren't great fits to start beside each other. That's not a great look for Pat Riley and Co., but neither is finishing as the 7-to-10 seed for the rest of the decade.
There's no quick fix for team's greater issue of roster inflexibility. Riley assured as much when he doubled down on the current core this summer, locking up the team's nucleus for at least three more seasons. From James Johnson, to Waiters, to Kelly Olynyk, each is effective in their own right, but whether the sum of the role-players equals the team of "young stars" Riley envisions remains to be seen.
Remember: Miami owns the fourth-most expensive roster in the league today. With that financial commitment, they cannot afford to be the fourth-best team in their own division. Other than matchups featuring the moribund Hawks, each of the remaining 14 divisional games is going to be a fight for the Heat.
The Wizards are the toast of the division. The Hornets are surviving Nicolas Batum's injury with Dwight Howard playing very effectively on both ends of the floor. The Orlando Magic looked shockingly competent in blowout wins over the Cavaliers, Spurs, and Pelicans (and yes, a win against Miami, too).
The fumes from last season's 30-11 second half won't be enough to lift the Heat back to the playoffs if they don't swiftly correct course. Plenty can happen over the next 75 games - and three seasons - but South Beach basketball fans are in for a tough haul if sustained mediocrity is as good as it gets.