NBA X-factors: Western Conference edition
On Tuesday, we started our look at the under-the-radar, high-variance players that represent the X-factor for each team going into the NBA season. After tackling the Eastern Conference, we take on all 15 teams in the West below:
Dallas Mavericks: Nerlens Noel
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It's hard to remember a high-profile player acquisition that went so sour so quickly - well, maybe since the Mavs again with Rajon Rondo in 2015. Dallas stole Nerlens Noel from the 76ers at the trade deadline last season, getting itself the younger, rawer version of the max center the team dramatically lost out on in free agency two offseasons earlier.
It should've been a move that allowed the Mavs to rebuild their core - along with Harrison Barnes and (eventually) Dennis Smith Jr. - without ever really tanking; an on-the-fly restructuring you have to be both really smart and really lucky to pull off.
Then, Nerlens and coach Rick Carlisle clashed, the big man demanded more than anyone would pay in free agency, and now he's playing an opt-in season for cheap before he potentially leaves the Mavs for good.
It'll be up to Noel to prove he can be that DeAndre light, without producing the off-court drama to negate his on-court value, and similarly up to the Mavs to show enough promise to prove to their young big that it's worth his time to stick around.
Denver Nuggets: Emmanuel Mudiay
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The cutting of Jameer Nelson - the Nuggets' ultra-conservative veteran option for starting point guard this season - may not be an explicit vote of confidence for former lottery PG Emmanuel Mudiay, but it's at least a let's-see-what-we've-got vote.
He may still lose out on the starting role to hybrid guard Jamal Murray, but Denver is undoubtedly hoping Mudiay can finally show the shooting and consistency to make a claim for the job.
Preseason was inconclusive, but his athleticism and pedigree will earn him chances until the team definitively has a better option. If he takes advantage of them, there's no reason the Nuggets can't grow into one of the most dangerous teams in the West in a couple years' time.
Golden State Warriors: Nick Young
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Obviously.
Houston Rockets: Luc Mbah a Moute & P.J. Tucker
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The less earth-shattering of the Rockets' nonetheless major offseason moves was grabbing these two versatile, defensive-minded wing veterans, who should provide the photo-negative version of the contributions of the previous summer's biggest acquisitions, Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson.
It'll be fascinating to see which players from the two duos end up being the most inextricable to the Rockets' team identity. Does one of Tucker or Mbah a Moute provide enough spacing to make their lockdown D unmissable? Or does either Gordon or Anderson become solid enough as a team defender to make their shooting the priority?
The smart bet of the new duo might be on LMAM, considering he benefited enough from playing with Chris Paul to go from fringe player on a lottery team to reliable starter on a quasi-contender nearly a decade into his career. Tucker was brilliant in Tuesday night's season-opening Warriors upset, though.
Los Angeles Clippers: Austin Rivers
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Milos Teodosic is the sexier pick here, but it's not often that the aging Euro-Leaguer comes over a decade-plus into his pro career and makes a difference on an NBA roster.
Austin Rivers seems like he still has the considerable two-way upside here, which he's flashed in stretches for the Clippers over his career (including in the postseason), and will now get to show as a full-time starter.
He'd have to grow his game considerably to help replace either the leadership and playmaking that Chris Paul provided at point guard or the spacing and consistency that J.J. Redick provided at the two, but giving L.A. some reliable backcourt dynamism without completely giving it back on the defensive end would be enough to validate his role on the Clips.
Naturally, he shot 25 percent from the field in the preseason, so even providing the latter may be a stretch for the always-challenging 25-year-old. But papa Doc is going to need his contributions, so expect him to get his looks until they become too unsightly to bear.
Los Angeles Lakers: Andrew Bogut
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In 2016, Bogut was the defensive anchor for the 73-win Warriors. In 2017, he's an afterthought on a team that hasn't won 30 games in a season since "Frozen" hit theaters. Still, Bogut provides the thing that nobody else on the Lakers does. Brook Lopez has never been known as an effective paint deterrent, and the Lakers don't have any other veteran centers on the roster.
Bogut barely played last season and missed the preseason, but says he'll be ready for the regular-season opener. Luke Walton certainly won't lean on him early, but if the team starts scoring 110 a game while giving up 125, you can bet he'll earn himself some key dirty-work minutes for the Baby Lakers.
Memphis Grizzlies: Mario Chalmers
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Random thing nobody remembers: Mario Chalmers was pretty awesome in his last couple weeks for the Grizzlies, averaging double digits off the bench with a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio and a knack for getting to the free-throw line.
Of course, nobody remembers it because it happened a year-and-a-half ago. Chalmers ruptured his Achilles in March 2016 and hasn't played since.
But for a Memphis team that's badly lacked reliable backup point guard play behind co-franchise player Mike Conley since Rio's injury, his return on a one-year deal could make a huge difference - at least, if he's anywhere near the player he was before suffering the often career-changing injury.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Taj Gibson
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Can Taj Gibson be a starter on a quasi-contending team? The first time he played for Tom Thibodeau, it seemed like that was his career path, but the NBA has changed so much even in that half-decade that it might've rendered Gibson's skill set as a non-floor-stretching, non-shot-blocking big close to obsolete.
Thibs almost certainly won't hear that, so Gibson will start at the four for this team because of the defense and consistency he provides. And in a first five where the other four can all shoot at least a little, it might be workable.
But if spacing gets tight and Karl-Anthony Towns doesn't evolve as a rim-protector, something might have to give - and we may see a lot more of Nemanja Bjelica and Gorgui Dieng than Wolves fans are hoping for.
New Orleans Pelicans: Ian Clark
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He's not a guy a ton of people are talking about for the Pelicans, but one whose shooting could prove an unignorable asset for a team that will be in desperate need of floor-spacing with its twin-towers frontcourt and essentially rangeless backcourt.
Clark was a brilliant bomber for four years at Belmont, and shot a respectable 37 percent from deep last year. Of course, that was for the Warriors, with whom he got the type of looks he might not see for the remainder of his career. But when your other wing options are Rajon Rondo, Tony Allen, and Jordan Crawford, even a handicapped 37 percent may look like a La Croix vending machine in the desert for the paint-locked Pelicans.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Raymond Felton
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Remember how miserable those point guard minutes were for Oklahoma City last year whenever Russell Westbrook sat, particularly in the playoffs?
Raymond Felton, signed to a one-year deal, should be the perfect veteran salve for that - at least, if they're getting the same Felton who buoyed the Clippers' bench for much of last season, or who won a playoff game against the Thunder practically single-handedly when he was with the Mavs two seasons ago.
But Felton has been notoriously erratic year to year in his career, and plenty of other PGs, proven or prospect, have struggled to find a groove playing behind Westbrook in OKC. Since the Thunder are undoubtedly hoping Westbrook won't have to be the one-man band again this season, it'd be huge if there was a backup option to provide him the consistent relief that Semaj Christon and Cameron Payne couldn't last year.
Phoenix Suns: T.J. Warren
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This might be wishful thinking on the Suns' behalf. If Warren isn't a legitimate X-factor, then what did they just spend $50 million on? If it's just what T.J.'s given them in years past, it's probably not enough. After a red-hot start to the season last year, Warren settled into his role as a volume scorer at middling efficiency, without adding much else to the box score.
The Suns already have a first-option-type scorer in the wings in Devin Booker, and it's hard to see how the two complement each other. Maybe the Suns see Warren settling into a super-sub-type role, but that's a strange thing to spend eight digits a year on.
Or maybe Warren will grow into something unforeseen this season, and the Suns will look inspired for locking him up young and cheap. He's skilled enough to make it worth monitoring.
Portland Trail Blazers: Jusuf Nurkic
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It feels diminutive to label Nurkic an X-factor player, since his contributions at the end of last year were the difference between the Blazers being legitimately dangerous and practically irrelevant.
Still, it doesn't seem worth pretending that anyone else on this roster has close to the same swing potential. The Blazers otherwise seem like a team of relatively known quantities at this point, failing a major leap forward for Maurice Harkless, or Evan Turner figuring out how to shoot from deep.
Realistically, it's the two-way play of Nurkic, a revelation for 20 games before breaking his leg last March, that could make the Blazers worth paying attention to this season. If he can't repeat that stretch, expect a whole lot of backcourt points and a whole lot of Ls for the Blazers this season.
Sacramento Kings: Zach Randolph
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There are a million young blueish-chip prospects for the Kings that could qualify for this. Skal Labissiere, Georgios Papagiannis, Harry Giles, or any number of other recent first-rounders could be either a future linchpin or roster flotsam in a couple years' time.
But even more interesting is the presence of Zach Randolph, playing the role that nobody would've expected of him 10 years ago: stabilizing veteran presence. (Of course, if you've read the headlines this offseason, it may still be something of an improbability.)
And just as compelling as whether he can be a positive influence on the team's cadre of young'ns is whether he can be a valuable contributor outside of the Grid-n-Grind confines of Memphis. (For what it's worth, he did lead the Kings in scoring this preseason.) Either way, expect Z-Bo's Kings jersey to be a hipster festival mainstay for many years to come.
San Antonio Spurs: Dejounte Murray
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Judging from his final stat line, you wouldn't think Murray had a postseason to write home about for the Spurs last year: 5.7 PPG, 2.5 APG, 38 percent shooting, and not a single three.
Still, his composure was undeniably impressive, and efforts like his double-double performance in San Antonio's closeout victory over Houston in the semifinals gave Spurs fans hope they might already have their point guard of the future.
They could use one, too, since Tony Parker won't be healthy to start the season and Patty Mills makes more sense in a reserve role. Murray has a long way to go after being drafted as a raw, late-first-round talent, but so did another Spurs point guard who fits that description.
Utah Jazz: Donovan Mitchell
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This should've been Dante Exum, but he's out indefinitely with a separated shoulder. Instead, we've got rookie hybrid guard Donovan Mitchell, who could step in and immediately be the impact player the Jazz are still hoping Exum will grow into.
Mitchell dominated the Summer League and held his own in the preseason. Without Exum to contend for minutes with, he should get an immediate rotation spot. He might not crack the Jazz's starting lineup this season, but if he lives up to the promise he showed since being drafted by Utah outside the top 10, he could play a large role in making fans forget that the team's best draft pick of the last decade just jumped ship in the offseason.