As recently as January, Derrick Rose, the 2011 MVP, was reportedly angling for a maximum contract worth well over six figures in guaranteed money as a free agent this summer.
Based on the lavish contracts handed out to role players during the 2016 offseason, it was hard to blame even an injury-wilted Rose for envisioning a big payday. But, as the saying goes in the investing world, past performance isn't an indicator of future results.
Rose officially signed a one-year contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday worth a reported $2.1 million. That's more than 35 times less than the guaranteed money Allen Crabbe will receive over the lifetime of the four-year deal he signed with the Portland Trail Blazers last offseason.
The same day the Cavs announced the Rose signing, Crabbe was traded to the Brooklyn Nets for journeyman Andrew Nicholson, who will reportedly be waived via the stretch provision. Life comes at you fast.
Both moves resulted from reckless spending during the 2016 offseason, when the salary cap was rising at unprecedented levels and teams were spending as if it would continue to do so. One year later, cap space is scarce, and some teams still haven't learned from others' mistakes.
There are clear arguments against Rose's free-agency demands. His injury concerns, particularly in a four-season stretch from 2011-2015 in which he played just 100 out of 312 regular-season games, are well documented. His score-first mentality alienated Kristaps Porzingis in his lone season with the Knicks. And calling Rose a minus on defense might be charitable.
Those are all good reasons not to devote long-term resources to Rose. But it's still an incredible departure from last summer, when teams were treating cap space like "fun coupons" after seeing the cap rise from $70 million in 2015-16 to more than $94 million this past season.
Even teams that had hamstrung themselves with egregious commitments suddenly had nearly $30 million in cap space - and a promise of more money to come.
Teams expected another heady cap raise for 2017-18. But not only were the cap projections lower than the $108 million projected in April 2015, the final $99-million cap came in even lower than the $101 million projection from April of this year. For teams attempting to thread the needle, the $9-million difference was a lot more than a rounding error; it was catastrophic.
That's why the Los Angeles Lakers had to send 2015 No. 2 pick D'Angelo Russell to the Nets to get out of the $48 million left on Timofey Mozgov's contract, and why the Blazers are eating $19.9 million of Nicholson's contract just to rid themselves of the $56.3 million (and major luxury-tax implications) tied to Crabbe's deal. Cap space is once again extremely difficult to come by, and this year's crop of free agents are worse off for it.
It's part of the reason why the markets for Rose and RFA Kentavious Caldwell-Pope never materialized. No team wants to be stuck footing the bill (or paying someone else to take on the debt), the same way the Knicks and Lakers are stuck paying Joakim Noah (three years, $55.6 million remaining) and Luol Deng (three years, $54 million remaining), respectively. While contract lengths are shorter under the latest CBA, the competitive advantages of roster flexibility are still relative to the league as a whole.
Some teams still can't help themselves. The Knicks renouncing Rose's Bird rights to ink Tim Hardaway Jr. to a four-year, $71-million deal reeks of 2016, while the boogeyman of LeBron James' potential departure has put the Cavs in a similar situation.
But there's a team hiding in plain sight that might be heading toward salary-cap purgatory, too capped out to add meaningful free agents and too good to add blue-chip rookies with premium draft picks: the Miami Heat.
While Pat Riley's operation has come up as one of Kyrie Irving's preferred trade destinations, it ultimately has little to offer. Without the reprieve of another unforeseen salary-cap jump in the next three seasons, Miami's books have been tied up with a quartet of signings over the past two offseasons that do little to move the needle. Three of them came this past month.
| Player | 2017-18 salary | 2018-19 | 2019-20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Johnson | $5.9M | $18.9M | $19.6M |
| James Johnson | $13.7M | $14.7M | $15.3M |
| Dion Waiters | $11M | $11.6M | $12.1M |
| Kelly Olynyk | $10.6M | $11.1M | $11.7M |
(Salaries courtesy: Spotrac)
The combined $58.7 million reported for 2019-20 is an unconscionable sum for a group of players with a limited ceiling, collectively. If Hassan Whiteside isn't the second coming of Bill Russell, the Heat are locked into long-term mediocrity.
If they're unable to pull off a long-shot deal for Irving, they'll have to bank on filling out their roster with players like Rose - the same veterans priced out of market-value contracts by the myopic spending of impatient teams.
Rose will likely enter free agency next summer once again looking to cash in. But thanks to teams like the Heat, which haven't learned from their salary-cap mistakes in 2016, the 2011 MVP may be doomed to experience more disappointment.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)