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The NBA Draft Lottery guide

David Dow / National Basketball Association / Getty

For the majority of NBA teams that missed the playoffs, Tuesday night marks the moment they've been waiting for since the end of the regular season; a moment when the fate of 14 ping pong balls could also determine the fate of their franchises.

For Nets fans - and, to a lesser degree, Kings fans - it merely marks another hopeless Tuesday, while in Boston, Celtics fans still celebrating Monday's Game 7 win are also rejoicing in the memory of Billy King's Brooklyn tenure.

The Lottery

Of the 14 balls (numbered 1-14), four are randomly selected from a lottery machine to create one of a possible 1,001 combinations. One of those combinations is discarded, while the other possible 1,000 are pre-assigned to the various lottery teams before the draw, weighted by the reverse order of the standings (the team with the worst record is assigned 250 combinations, while the team sporting the best record out of the lottery teams only claims five).

The team that owns the first combination pulled from the machine wins the lottery and the No. 1 overall pick in June's draft. The process is then repeated for the second and third picks, with fourth through 30th determined by reverse order of the standings.

The actual lottery takes place in front of league, team, media, and Ernst & Young witnesses, but those in attendance are sworn to secrecy until the lottery order is then revealed on live television later in the night. Each team sends a separate representative to the televised show as well, but just like the viewers watching at home, those reps aren't aware of what's coming.

The top prospects

Who goes where will be a fluid conversation over the next month, but most experts seem to be in agreement with three names above all others.

Markelle Fultz, G, Washington

Fultz is a long, strong ball-handler with great pace and the ability to play either guard position.

Lonzo (Son of LaVar) Ball, G, UCLA

A 6-5 point guard who has the makings of an elite playmaker and strong defender, it's no wonder Ball is the talk of the 2017 draft class. Just ask his dad.

Josh Jackson, F, Kansas

A two-way forward with defensive versatility, Jackson is often the forgotten one when discussing potential No. 1 picks come June 22.

The odds

Team Combinations (odds) Top-three odds Lowest possible pick
Celtics (via Brooklyn) 250 (25%) 64.3% 4th
Suns 199 (19.9%) 55.8% 5th
Lakers 156 (15.6%) 46.9 6th
76ers 119 (11.9%) 37.8% 7th
Magic 88 (8.8%) 29.6% 8th
Timberwolves 53 (5.3%) 18.3% 9th
Knicks 53 (5.3%) 18.3% 10th
Kings 28 (2.8%) 10% 11th
Mavericks 17 (1.7%) 6.1% 12th
Pelicans 11 (1.1%) 4% 13th
Hornets 8 (0.8%) 2.9% 14th
Pistons 7 (0.7%) 2.5% 14th
Nuggets 6 (0.6%) 2.2% 14th
Heat 5 (0.5%) 1.8% 14th

Since it was expanded to 14 teams in 2005, seven of the 12 lotteries have been won by teams who entered with the fifth-to-ninth-best odds, though each of the last two lotteries was won by the team with the best odds. No team in the current 12-year-old format has won the lottery from outside the top nine.

What you need to know

  • The Celtics can swap picks with the Nets, and most certainly will, given that Boston's pick landed in the bottom four. Brooklyn - which finished with the worst record in the league - will pick 27th, while the Celtics will be the first conference finalist since the 2003 Pistons to own a top-four pick.
  • If the Lakers' pick falls outside the top three - and there's a 53.1 percent chance it will - they'll lose their pick to Philadelphia.
  • Philly can swap picks with Sacramento, meaning the Kings can't actually land the No. 1 overall pick this year. It also means that should one of Philadelphia's or Sacramento's combinations win the lottery while the Lakers' pick falls to fourth, the Sixers would end up with the No. 1 and No. 4 picks. #TrustTheProcess
  • The Kings will get the Pelicans' pick unless New Orleans jumps into the top three, so in a best-case scenario, Sacramento could leave the lottery with the No. 2 and No. 10 picks. In a worst-case scenario - though it's extraordinarily unlikely - they could leave with nothing, since they'll forfeit their own pick to Chicago if it falls outside the top 10.

The reps

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