Prior to every UFC event, theScore's Alexander K. Lee gives you his predictions for all the main-card fights.
Welterweight Bout
Johny Hendricks (12-3 UFC, 17-3)
vs.
Stephen Thompson (6-1 UFC, 11-1)
In some ways, the most intriguing battle of the weekend will be Hendricks vs. the scale. He needs to make weight after a poor cut hospitalized him last October, canceling a co-main event fight with Tyron Woodley and prompting Dana White to say that Hendricks would be a middleweight from then on.
Hendricks has been saying all the right things and providing regular updates on his health, but a difficult cut is the last thing he needs going up against a skilled opponent like "Wonderboy" Thompson. The 32-year-old has improved with every fight since a loss to Matt Brown. He's worked on his takedown defense, and when he keeps the fight standing, few have been able to hang with the kickboxing specialist.
The X-factor could be Hendricks' credentials as a former NCAA Division I wrestling champion. His takedowns made the difference in bloody brawls with Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit, and if Hendricks grounds Thompson, it's curtains for "Wonderboy."
THE PICK: Hendricks
Heavyweight Bout
Roy Nelson (7-8 UFC, 20-12)
vs.
Jared Rosholt (6-1 UFC, 14-2)
Nelson hasn't put his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt to much use during a stretch that has seen him lose five of his last six fights. He'll need it against the smothering style of Rosholt.
As solid as Rosholt has been in the Octagon, he's shown little beyond a powerful shot and a snug top game. That might sound like an indictment of Rosholt's limited skill set, but Nelson is not immune to being taken down and held down. Rosholt's biggest challenge will be pulling the trigger - something he has been reluctant to do since a knockout loss to Oleksiy Oliynyk. If he waits too long, he risks becoming another victim of Nelson's clobbering right hand.
THE PICK: Nelson
Light Heavyweight Bout
Ovince Saint Preux (6-2 UFC, 18-7)
vs.
Rafael Cavalcante (1-3 UFC, 12-6)
This is a tricky fight for Saint Preux, who doesn't have much to gain from a win over "Feijao" other than stopping his current losing streak at one. "OSP" has only truly faltered against the best of the division - Glover Teixeira, Ryan Bader, and Gegard Mousasi all exploited Saint Preux's deficiencies on the ground.
That leaves the grappling option open to Cavalcante, but he favors striking over jiu-jitsu and that will be his undoing. "Feijao" has suffered his fair share of knockouts, so Saint Preux has a good chance of catching him with a counter shot that puts the former Strikeforce champion's lights out.
THE PICK: Saint Preux
Flyweight Bout
Joseph Benavidez (10-2 UFC, 23-4)
vs.
Zach Makovsky (2-2 UFC, 18-6)
This matchup pits heavy-hitter Benavidez against Makovsky - a fighter who has never been knocked out. "Fun Size" has a knack for avoiding clean shots to his chin, but he's never fought a flyweight with the striking ability of Benavidez.
Expect Benavidez to be the aggressor, as usual. He has nothing to fear from Makovsky in the standup department, and his constant pressure will keep Makovsky from being able to wrestle effectively. Even if Makovsky manages to time a shot with success, Benavidez is excellent at escaping or reversing position. A knockout might be too much to ask for, but Benavidez should be able to take the decision here.
THE PICK: Benavidez
Light Heavyweight Bout
Misha Cirkunov (1-0 UFC, 10-2)
vs.
Alex Nicholson (0-0 UFC, 6-1)
It didn't take long for Cirkunov to make his way to the UFC. When he did, he thrilled fans with a first-round KO of Daniel Jolly. Cirkunov's plan is simple: grab hold of you, drag you to the mat, and pound you into a fine paste.
Nicholson will have to use his range to keep Cirkunov away, because if Cirkunov gets into clinch range, the fight will be over fast. The fact Nicholson has zero wrestling background makes this fight a classic mismatch. Cirkunov is the biggest favorite on the card. Expect that to play out accordingly.
THE PICK: Cirkunov
Welterweight Bout
Mike Pyle (9-6 UFC, 26-11-1)
vs.
Sean Spencer (3-3 UFC, 12-4)
Spencer has good power in his hands, but must develop a killer instinct to capitalize on it. He has gone to the scorecards in his last five UFC appearances, and that cost him at UFC Fight Night 59 where he lost a controversial unanimous decision against Cathal Pendred.
A more urgent Spencer will be bad news for veteran Mike Pyle, who hasn't shown much since a surprising four-fight winning streak had him flirting with the top 10 nearly three years ago. Young, spry welterweights like Jordan Mein and Colby Covington have dominated him, and Spencer is another opponent along those lines. Look for Spencer to get off to a fast start, leading to a finish in the first or second round.
THE PICK: Spencer