UFC 318 predictions: Does Poirier have Holloway's number?

theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the UFC 318 main-card bouts ahead of Saturday's event in New Orleans.

Lightweight bout

Max Holloway (26-8)
vs.
Dustin Poirier (30-9, 1 NC)

Two of the UFC's most beloved fighters are set to clash for a third time in what could be the Fight of the Year.

Former interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier will say farewell to mixed martial arts after he steps into the Octagon one last time against Max Holloway, a former featherweight champ who's putting his BMF title up for grabs. Poirier has beaten Holloway twice already and has a chance to sweep their series 3-0.

Their second fight at UFC 236 in 2019 was an instant classic, with Poirier edging out Holloway on the scorecards. But a lot has changed since. Holloway has moved up to the lightweight division full time and looks the part now. Unless his knockout loss to Ilia Topuria last October took a serious toll, Holloway will outwork Poirier in another thriller to avenge his previous losses and send "The Diamond" packing.

The pick: Holloway, unanimous decision

Middleweight bout

Paulo Costa (14-4)
vs.
Roman Kopylov (14-3)

I can't trust Paulo Costa at this point. The former title challenger has fought just twice since 2022, losing both, and has shown no signs of turning his career around. Maybe he puts on a strong performance against a lower-ranked opponent like Roman Kopylov, but the reality is that Kopylov's good. Real good. He's won six of his last seven and has lost just once since 2021. This will be his breakthrough.

The pick: Kopylov, unanimous decision

Welterweight bout

Kevin Holland (28-13, 1 NC)
vs.
Daniel Rodriguez (19-5)

Kevin Holland is fighting for the fourth time in 2025 - what a maniac - and I love this matchup for him. Daniel Rodriguez will stand and trade with anyone, but that'll be his downfall here. Holland is the sharper striker and will become just the second person to stop Rodriguez with strikes - joining Ian Machado Garry - late in the fight.

The pick: Holland, third-round TKO

Featherweight bout

Dan Ige (19-9)
vs.
Patricio "Pitbull" Freire (36-8)

Can Patricio "Pitbull" Freire break the Bellator curse? That's what we all want to know. He came up short in his UFC debut against Yair Rodriguez in April, and now he's getting a more favorable matchup against Dan Ige. But the pressure is on. If Freire doesn't beat Ige, his Octagon career could be over before we know it.

Luckily for Freire, I think he has the tools to beat Ige, even at age 38. I also think he'll learn from his mistakes. After the Rodriguez loss, Freire admitted he didn't start nearly fast enough or throw enough offense throughout. A three-round bout is a sprint for a former double champ who's used to fighting five rounds. Expect a much better performance from "Pitbull" this time.

The pick: Freire, unanimous decision

Lightweight bout

Michael Johnson (23-19)
vs.
Daniel Zellhuber (15-2)

This fight is understandably flying under the radar, but it has the chance to be a slobber knocker. Daniel Zellhuber is coming off a loss in theScore's 2024 Fight of the Year, while Michael Johnson is no stranger to a back-and-forth brawl himself. As far as a pick is concerned, I'll go with the guy who doesn't have almost as many losses as wins.

The pick: Zellhuber, second-round TKO