UFC 315 predictions: Who has the edge in Muhammad-Della Maddalena?

theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the UFC 315 main-card bouts ahead of Saturday's event in Montreal.

Welterweight championship

Belal Muhammad (24-3, 1 NC)
vs.
Jack Della Maddalena (17-2)

Belal Muhammad is returning to the Octagon for the first time since dethroning Leon Edwards to become the new welterweight champion at UFC 304 last July. It's also his first fight since developing a bone infection in his foot that forced him out of a planned title defense against Shavkat Rakhmonov last December.

But this weekend, it won't be Rakhmonov standing across from Muhammad in the cage. Instead, it will be Australia's Jack Della Maddalena, who jumped at the opportunity to challenge Muhammad for the title as Rakhmonov recovers from an injury of his own.

Della Maddalena, who has won seven straight since his UFC debut in 2022, does a lot of things very well. He's a high-level boxer, arguably one of the best in the promotion. His punches are crisp and fluid. And he has a great killer instinct, as shown in his come-from-behind knockout of Gilbert Burns in March 2024.

But this is an MMA fight, not a boxing match.

Muhammad, meanwhile, is the definition of a grinder. He does a great job of out-hustling his opponents on the feet, intending to eventually get them to the ground, where he's better than anyone else in the division. Muhammad has fought sharp strikers before - Edwards, Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson - and each bout has ended with Muhammad overwhelming and suffocating them with his wrestling. It's not always pretty, but it's effective. And unless Della Maddalena has improved his wrestling defense a ton in the last 14 months, I believe Muhammad will be able to do the same thing to him.

Muhammad will come close to finishing Della Maddalena with ground-and-pound late in the fight, but in the end, the champion will settle for a decision victory.

The pick: Muhammad, unanimous decision

Women's flyweight championship

Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1)
vs.
Manon Fiorot (12-1)

This is, without question, the toughest matchup available for Valentina Shevchenko in the division. But it's still a passable test for one of the greatest women's fighters of all time.

Manon Fiorot is undefeated in the UFC for a reason: She's a very athletic, sharp, and tactical striker who's had her way with all seven of her opponents in the Octagon.

The problem for Fiorot is that Shevchenko is just as, if not more, technical on the feet. This isn't to say Fiorot can't beat Shevchenko standing up, but rather their exchanges will be competitive. Shevchenko outstriking Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2018 is a result that holds up particularly well.

If the fight ends up on the ground, it'll be all Shevchenko. She has unreal takedowns, vicious ground-and-pound, and heavy top control in her arsenal. Fiorot has shown solid takedown defense in the past, but she's never fought someone like Shevchenko.

Fiorot will be a tough challenge for Shevchenko if the fight takes place mostly in the stand-up department. But with more ways to win, I'm siding with the champion to hold onto the belt.

The pick: Shevchenko, unanimous decision

Jose Aldo (32-9)
vs.
Aiemann Zahabi (12-2)

Even at 38 years old and with a million miles on his tires, Jose Aldo can outstrike almost anyone.

The UFC Hall of Famer and former featherweight champion is clearly nowhere close to the prime of his career, but the ability to land punches and control distance hasn't escaped him yet.

That's what makes this matchup with Aiemann Zahabi at least somewhat favorable.

Zahabi is a striker through and through. He's landed just one takedown in his UFC career, and that was all the way back in May 2019. Barring a complete overhaul of his game plan, Zahabi will go out there and try to outstrike Aldo - and it won't work.

Aldo struggled against Mario Bautista in his last fight: Bautista kept pushing him up against the fence, and Aldo couldn't escape. But that won't be an issue against Zahabi. So give me "The King of Rio" to put forth another impressive performance.

The pick: Aldo, unanimous decision

Other main-card predictions: Alexa Grasso def. Natalia Silva by split decision; Benoit Saint Denis def. Kyle Prepolec by second-round knockout