Predicting UFC champions at end of 2024

As 2024 kicks off, many fighters are setting out to accomplish their New Year's resolution of winning a UFC championship. That dream will only come true for a select few.

Here's who will reign over each division at the end of the year.

Flyweight

Current champion: Alexandre Pantoja
Champion at end of 2024: Alexandre Pantoja

There's finally a bit of consistency in the flyweight division. Pantoja took the title from Brandon Moreno last summer and then defended it for the first time against Brandon Royval a few weeks ago. Pantoja is far from a flawless fighter, but he is well-rounded and smart enough to keep winning. He might end up being the most dominant 125-pound champion since Demetrious Johnson. Moreno probably has the best chance of dethroning the Brazilian out of anyone, but Pantoja is in good position to complete a full calendar year with the belt around his waist.

Bantamweight

Current champion: Sean O'Malley
Champion at end of 2024: Merab Dvalishvili

The UFC would love it if O'Malley had a long reign, but it's hard to see that happening in a division as deep as bantamweight. O'Malley shouldn't have too much trouble getting past Marlon "Chito" Vera in his first title defense at UFC 299 in March, as he's made significant improvements since losing to Vera in 2020. But things get a bit dicey for "Suga" after that. If Dvalishvili beats Henry Cejudo at UFC 298 in February, the Georgian fighter will likely get the next title shot. And Dvalishvili is a nightmare matchup for O'Malley as an aggressive, wrestling-focused cardio machine going up against a lanky striker.

Featherweight

Current champion: Alexander Volkanovski
Champion at end of 2024: Ilia Topuria

Going back to his early UFC days in 2016 and 2017, I've been as big of a believer in Volkanovski as anyone. And for a while, he was the most dominant fighter in the promotion. But Father Time catches up to everyone. Topuria, 26, has shown every sign of being the future of the featherweight division, and he's getting Volkanovski at the right time. Volkanovski is not even three months removed from a brutal knockout loss to lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, the kind of defeat that can start a sharp decline. If this fight was happening at a later date, I might feel differently about it. But as of now, I'm backing Topuria to take over the throne and begin his own impressive run as 145-pound champion.

Lightweight

Current champion: Islam Makhachev
Champion at end of 2024: Islam Makhachev

This is probably the easiest prediction to make this year. Makhachev is in the prime of his career, and after handling the likes of Charles Oliveira and Volkanovski (twice) in the last 15 months, he will be heavily favored against anyone he faces. If Makhachev fights twice in 2024, it'll probably be against Oliveira and Justin Gaethje. And he might just fight once because he observes and won't compete during Ramadan, which lasts from March 10 to April 9. Either way, it'll be another successful year as champion for Khabib Nurmagomedov's successor.

Welterweight

Current champion: Leon Edwards
Champion at end of 2024: Shavkat Rakhmonov

Though Belal Muhammad is next in line to challenge Edwards for the welterweight title, many view Rakhmonov as the heir to the throne. And so do I. Boasting sharp stand-up skills, unreal grappling, and a 100% career finish rate, the undefeated Kazakh is a terror for anyone in the division - just ask Stephen Thompson or Geoff Neal or any of his four other UFC opponents. No matter whether he competes once more or immediately steps into a title fight after Muhammad gets his shot, Rahkmonov will dethrone Edwards and end the year as 170-pound king.

Middleweight

Current champion: Sean Strickland
Champion at end of 2024: Khamzat Chimaev

Is this finally Chimaev's year? When the Russian joined the UFC and won three fights in the second half of 2020, no one would have thought he'd still be without a title in 2024. That's how good he looked. But inactivity and division hopping has prevented Chimaev from reaching his full potential. Although a majority decision win over former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman in his return to middleweight in October wasn't his best performance, "Borz" finally seems in line to challenge for 185-pound gold sometime this year. And until I see Chimaev lose, I'm not picking against him.

Light heavyweight

Current champion: Alex Pereira
Champion at end of 2024: Alex Pereira

I'm not at all confident about who will reign over the light heavyweight division at the end of 2024. It could be Magomed Ankalaev if he beats Johnny Walker on Jan. 13. It could be former champion Jamahal Hill, who relinquished the title last July due to injury. It could even be Jiri Prochazka, who fell to Pereira in a vacant title bout in November. Because of all the question marks at the top of the weight class, I'll lean toward Pereira to somewhat surprisingly keep the belt for an entire year. Light heavyweight may be a very volatile division, but "Poatan" has one thing going for him: The ability to finish anyone at any time.

Heavyweight

Current champion: Jon Jones
Champion at end of 2024: Tom Aspinall

Heavyweight is going to be a two-man race between Jones and Aspinall this year. And it all comes down to whether Jones retires - and vacates the heavyweight belt - before 2025. Though I'm not too confident this scenario will happen, I'll predict Jones retains the title against Stipe Miocic in the summer, leaves the door open for a return, and then announces his retirement in the weeks or months after the fight, paving the way for Aspinall to be elevated to undisputed champion from interim champ. There is also a realistic scenario where Jones beats Miocic and retires without officially giving up the belt or doesn't retire at all. Aspinall is a shoe-in to be the next undisputed champ - that becoming reality in 2024 will just depend on what Jones decides to do.

Strawweight

Current champion: Zhang Weili
Champion at end of 2024: Zhang Weili

Zhang won't have an easy time remaining strawweight queen all the way through 2024, but it's not an impossible task. A couple of tough matchups await the Chinese champion, with Yan Xiaonan and Tatiana Suarez likely the next two challengers in that order. It's hard to say whether both fights will take place this year, since Zhang hasn't been the most active fighter as of late. But she's still improving and may have the tools to beat both women anyway. I'll go out on somewhat of a limb and say Zhang is still is the champ at the end of December.

Women's flyweight

Current champion: Alexa Grasso
Champion at end of 2024: Valentina Shevchenko

Maybe I'm beating a dead horse, but I'm still a Shevchenko believer. The former longtime women's flyweight champion came close to regaining the throne in her rematch against Grasso last September, with one controversial scorecard causing a split draw instead of a split-decision victory for Shevchenko. Now, Grasso and Shevchenko are expected to meet for a third time sometime in 2024. Both women had their moments in the second fight, and Shevchenko's best days are probably behind her, so it would not be a surprise to see Grasso leave with the belt again, perhaps more dominantly than before. But until I see that happen with my own eyes, I'll take Shevchenko to turn back the clock.

Women's bantamweight

Current champion: Vacant
Champion at end of 2024: Mayra Bueno Silva

Welcome to the post-Amanda Nunes era. What awaits the women's bantamweight division is anybody's guess. Bueno Silva is scheduled to meet Raquel Pennington for the vacant title at UFC 297 on Jan. 20, so the winner will immediately become the front-runner to end the year as champion. But it also wouldn't be surprising to see a few fighters play hot potato with the belt like after Ronda Rousey was dethroned in 2015. Former champ Julianna Pena will definitely be in the mix. I'll hesitantly side with Bueno Silva to solidify herself as the best women's bantamweight in the UFC, but who knows if it'll be a long reign.