5 MMA predictions for 2024

Mixed martial arts provided many memorable moments in 2023, but now it's time to look ahead to the new year. Here are five predictions for 2024.

Nate Diaz returns to UFC

When Nate Diaz parted ways with the UFC after beating Tony Ferguson in September 2022, it was no secret that he planned to return one day.

Diaz took advantage of being his own boss last year, booking a boxing match against YouTube star-turned-prizefighter Jake Paul. But it always seemed like a one-and-done thing for one of MMA's biggest stars before he returned home to the Octagon. The move to boxing did not go Diaz's way as Paul outboxed him, dropped him, and took home a unanimous decision win last August. But Diaz got what he wanted: a lot of cash.

Paul and Diaz have talked about fighting for a second time, but they've been unable to agree on one key aspect. Paul wants the rematch to be an MMA bout in the PFL, while Diaz is more interested in another boxing match. It seems unlikely they'll fight again, at least not in 2024. So, with limited lucrative opportunities available to Diaz outside the UFC, the Stockton, California, native will return to his longtime home. What for? Hard to say. But a trilogy bout against Conor McGregor will surely be at the top of the list.

Jones retires as heavyweight champ

Numerous all-time greats - such as Daniel Cormier, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Anderson Silva, Jose Aldo, and Amanda Nunes - retired from MMA in the last four years. Another will walk away in 2024: UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones.

Jones' departure won't come as a shock like Nurmagomedov's big reveal did in 2020. The former longtime light heavyweight champ, who finally captured a title in a second division last March, is getting up there in age at 36 years old. He's also arguably done enough to cement himself as the greatest of all time and has hinted at retirement already.

Currently recovering from a torn pectoral muscle, Jones has a "legacy" fight against former two-time heavyweight champ Stipe Miocic ahead of him. If things go according to plan, that'll take place this summer. But if Jones gets past Miocic, he would have to start defending his belt against the new breed of the division: the likes of interim champ Tom Aspinall, Sergei Pavlovich, and Jailton Almeida. Jones has said himself he doesn't see much upside in facing off with young, hungry contenders with minimal name value and might retire instead. And hey, it's hard to argue with a GOAT.

Jones will beat Miocic at the International Fight Week pay-per-view event, say he isn't sure what'll come next, and then confirm his retirement in the weeks after the fight, allowing Aspinall to begin his run as the new heavyweight king.

Pereira, Adesanya complete trilogy

There's currently no clear path to a third fight between current UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira and former middleweight titleholder Israel Adesanya in 2024. But when there's a will, there's a way. This is a matchup that all parties involved - Pereira, Adesanya, and the UFC - are surely interested in.

Here's a brief rundown if you've been living under a rock the last year and a bit: Pereira beat Adesanya via fifth-round TKO in November 2022, capturing the middleweight belt in their first MMA fight. (Pereira won both of their previous kickboxing matches). The UFC granted Adesanya an immediate rematch and he capitalized on the opportunity, brutally knocking out Pereira last April in one of the year's top highlights.

The defeat prompted Pereira to move to light heavyweight, and he won his debut in July against Jan Blachowicz. Adesanya's second reign was short-lived as he dropped the title to Sean Strickland in a stunning upset in September. Not even two weeks later, Pereira was booked in a vacant 205-pound title fight against Jiri Prochazka. Then, in November, Pereira finished the Czech fighter to become a two-division champion.

Does Pereira-Adesanya 3 make sense at this very second? No, not really - actually, not at all. Pereira should be focused on defending the 205-pound title against either Jamahal Hill or the winner between Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker, while Adesanya should have his sights set on regaining the 185-pound throne. But Pereira-Adesanya 3 is a blockbuster event waiting to happen, and a sellable fight often takes precedence over a bout that should happen next. Even if it means Adesanya getting an undeserved light heavyweight title shot, somehow and sometime this year, these two rivals will complete their iconic trilogy.

Garry ends the year with title shot in hand

Along with Shavkat Rakhmonov, Ian Machado Garry is one of the hottest fighters in the UFC welterweight division. This is the year that "The Future" will become "The Present."

Garry, Ireland's best hope of a UFC champion since McGregor, is scheduled to face Geoff Neal at UFC 298 on Feb. 17 in Anaheim. If he wins, he'll continue his climb up the rankings - Neal is No. 8 and Garry No. 10 - and join the unofficial list of top contenders.

With Belal Muhammad likely up next for a title shot against welterweight champ Leon Edwards and Rakhmonov waiting in line, a lot of dominos would have to fall the right way for Garry to get a crack at UFC gold in 2024. But by the end of the year, he'll be the welterweight fans are demanding to see challenge for the belt in 2025.

Cejudo signs with PFL

Expect to see some big moves from the PFL in its first campaign since acquiring Bellator - that includes the signing of a former UFC two-division champion.

Henry Cejudo could find himself in a peculiar situation if he loses to Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 298. The former bantamweight and flyweight champ will have lost two straight and be very much outside the 135-pound title picture. When Cejudo returned from a three-year retirement last May to challenge Aljamain Sterling for the bantamweight title, it didn't feel like a comeback that would stick if things didn't go Cejudo's way. He wanted to become champion again.

While a second retirement is certainly not out of the question if he loses to Dvalishvili, perhaps a change of scenery would also serve "Triple C" well. Cejudo's manager, Ali Abdelaziz, has a good relationship with both promotions and has helped facilitate UFC-to-PFL moves in the past, most recently with Derek Brunson.

The PFL doesn't have a bantamweight division under its season format, but Donn Davis and Co. could shape a new 135-pound roster around Cejudo and Bellator champion Patchy Mix starting in 2024.