UFC 296 best bets: Take 'Thug Nasty' on short notice

The UFC is pulling out all the stops for its final event of 2023, with a welterweight title fight between champion Leon Edwards and Colby Covington taking the top billing at UFC 296 on Saturday.

The card also features flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja defending his belt for the first time in a rematch against Brandon Royval.

Edwards is favored to retain the 170-pound title, sitting at -160 on theScore Bet. It's not surprising to see Edwards as the favorite, given his momentum and Covington's inactivity. If you like "Rocky" in this spot, -160 isn't a bad price. But it's a bit risky because Covington's wrestling could give Edwards - whom Kamaru Usman took down several times in their fights - some problems.

Before the action gets underway at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, here are the two best bets for the event.

Rakhmonov-Thompson over 1.5 rounds (-165)

Shavkat Rakhmonov is on the short list of future champions in the welterweight division. Many expect he'll take the next step toward that goal by beating Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson, a 40-year-old former title challenger who's essentially been a top contender in the division since 2015.

Rakhmonov's dangerous ground game makes him a stylistic nightmare for the flashy striker in Thompson, so it makes sense that Rakhmonov is a -650 favorite. However, there's value in the over 1.5 rounds prop bet.

Despite Rakhmonov's advantages, his opponent won't go down without a fight. Thompson's coming off a vintage performance against Kevin Holland in December 2022. "Wonderboy" found himself on the wrong side of decision losses in recent bouts against grapplers like Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, sure, but those were decisions and not finishes. Thompson's never been submitted in his professional career, which spans 24 fights and almost 14 years. The only time he's been stopped was in a knockout loss to Anthony Pettis in 2019.

Thompson, who's usually durable, won't have to worry too much about Rakhmonov knocking him out. Though Rakhmonov is more than capable in the stand-up department, the Uzbekistan-born Kazakh fighter will surely look to get Thompson to the ground - where he holds a massive advantage.

There's a lot of anticipation surrounding this fight because of the potential title stakes it carries at 170 pounds. But don't be surprised if it turns into a grueling affair in which Rakhmonov prevails. Even if Thompson somehow keeps the fight standing, it should still go over 1.5 rounds. Thompson hasn't had a fight end in that amount of time - win or lose - since 2016.

Bryce Mitchell wins by decision (+110)

Mitchell stepped in on 10 days' notice to face featherweight contender Josh Emmett, but both the oddsmakers and the public have faith in Mitchell's abilities to get the job done. He's a -225 favorite.

This seems like one of those scenarios where the short-notice fighter has a good chance of winning. "Thug Nasty" bounced back from a brutal loss to Ilia Topuria - which is less shameful as we watch Topuria more - with a unanimous decision win over Dan Ige in September. Mitchell, 16-1 as a pro, should still be taken seriously as a future top-five contender.

Emmett, on the other hand, is coming off a one-sided, devastating loss to Topuria in June. That bout followed a submission defeat to Yair Rodriguez in February. Mitchell and Emmett were both dominated by Topuria, but the difference is that Emmett is 38 years old, and Mitchell is still just 29. Emmett's recent slump might be a sign that things are winding down for the Team Alpha Male product.

Stylistically, Emmett-Mitchell is a striker versus grappler matchup. Emmett is a power puncher and owns some of the most lethal fists in the division, backed up by knockout wins over Ricardo Lamas, Michael Johnson, and Mirsad Bektic. Meanwhile, Mitchell is a suffocating grappler who excels at chaining takedowns, often spending the majority of a 15-minute fight on top of his opponent.

While Emmett doesn't have a particular weakness in takedown defense, it should be noted that he was training for a completely different stylistic matchup against a fellow striker in Giga Chikadze. In this case, Mitchell's aggression will likely be too much for Emmett to handle. Mitchell settling for a decision victory after being unable to TKO or submit Emmett is the most realistic outcome.

Here are the full odds for UFC 296 on Dec. 16:

Main card (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET)

• Leon Edwards (-160) vs. Colby Covington (+135)
• Alexandre Pantoja (-195) vs. Brandon Royval (+165)
• Shavkat Rakhmonov (-650) vs. Stephen Thompson (+450)
• Paddy Pimblett (-310) vs. Tony Ferguson (+250)
• Bryce Mitchell (-225) vs. Josh Emmett (+185)

Preliminary card (ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET)

• Dustin Jacoby (-275) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+225)
• Irene Aldana (-180) vs. Karol Rosa (+150)
• Cody Garbrandt (-185) vs. Brian Kelleher (+155)
• Casey O'Neill (-190) vs. Ariane Lipski (+160)

Early preliminary card (ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET)

• Tagir Ulanbekov (-175) vs. Cody Durden (+145)
• Andre Fili (-175) vs. Lucas Almeida (+145)
• Martin Buday (-130) vs. Shamil Gaziev (+110)