4 biggest storylines ahead of UFC 296

The final UFC event of the year is upon us, and it's loaded with fascinating matchups.

In Saturday's UFC 296 main event, welterweight champion Leon Edwards defends his title against former interim champ Colby Covington. In the co-headliner, Alexandre Pantoja puts his flyweight belt on the line in a rematch with Brandon Royval.

Here are four key storylines ahead of the UFC's return to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Much-needed clarity at welterweight

It feels like the welterweight division has been at a standstill for quite some time.

It's not that the top contenders haven't been fighting. Edwards defended his belt for the first time in a trilogy bout against Kamaru Usman in March; Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns squared off in a key battle in May; Shavkat Rakhmonov is about to compete for the second time in 2023; Ian Machado Garry has stayed relatively active; and Sean Brady recently got back into the mix with a win over Kelvin Gastelum.

Still, these fights aren't happening quickly - or often - enough, given the depth of the weight class.

As a result, there's a lot of buildup at the top of the division right now. Muhammad has done more than enough to deserve a title shot but settled for a backup role in this weekend's title bout. Rakhmonov should be title-shot-bound, too, if he beats Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson on Saturday, but he likely won't jump ahead of Muhammad. Rakhmonov, too, will have to wait. That's before even mentioning the numerous up-and-comers - Garry, Jack Della Maddalena, and Rinat Fakhretdinov - who could enter title contention in the foreseeable future with a couple of big victories.

UFC 296 will be a good start in sorting out the 170-pound division, with two pivotal matchups on the main card: Edwards-Covington and Rakhmonov-Thompson. Of course, Garry was scheduled to fight Vicente Luque in another massive showdown, but the Irishman withdrew Wednesday night due to illness. Even with the last-minute cancellation, that's four of the top seven welterweights - including Edwards - fighting on the same night.

No matter who wins and loses, this time next week, we're going to have more clarity about who the real players at 170 pounds are. And hopefully, it stays that way.

Covington's last shot at undisputed gold

UFC CEO Dana White's argument that Covington deserves this title shot against Edwards isn't very strong. On paper, Covington is one of the best welterweights in the world. But he hasn't stepped into the Octagon since a March 2022 win over Jorge Masvidal, who retired from the sport earlier this year. That's Covington's only fight since he challenged then-champion Usman for the second time - and came up short again - in 2021. And only one victory - in a fight with Tyron Woodley - separated his two title-fight losses to Usman. Covington hasn't been active and hasn't beaten anyone currently ranked in the top 15.

That said, White decided to book Edwards-Covington - despite Muhammad clearly deserving the opportunity more - because it's a sellable fight. One of the most controversial fighters in the UFC, Covington talks a lot when a microphone is in front of him, and he gained stardom years ago by being an outspoken supporter of a certain former president.

This, however, might be his last chance at capturing the UFC's undisputed welterweight title.

Covington, 35, is reaching the age when fighters in lighter weight classes start to decline. That isn't to say Covington has shown signs of decline because he hasn't. But it's unlikely that he's made any drastic improvements in the last few years, and there's a good chance that, at best, he's in the final stages of his prime.

Plus, the UFC can't just keep giving Covington title shots over and over again. He's had two chances already, and eventually, enough is enough. As is, other contenders are waiting in the wings. If Covington loses to Edwards, he would have to do a lot to climb his way back into the title picture. We're talking three wins at least, and that might be too big of an ask for a fighter who, these days, seems keen on waiting for big opportunities to line up on their own.

Flyweights flying under the radar again

Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo played hot potato with the flyweight belt for the last three years, and that put the division in the limelight - which was long overdue.

For the first time since January 2019, a flyweight title bout takes place on Saturday without either man involved. Pantoja dethroned Moreno at UFC 290 in July and will defend his belt for the first time against Royval, a man he beat in a non-title bout in 2021.

Given how stacked UFC 296 is, there isn't a ton of buzz for Pantoja-Royval 2. This is a long-standing trend at flyweight - just ask longtime champion Demetrious Johnson. But fans would be foolish not to be excited for the rematch. Pantoja and Royval - and, frankly, almost everyone who competes at 125 pounds - are always exciting. In fact, Pantoja's win over Moreno was one of the most thrilling fights of 2023.

Pantoja-Royval 1 was a fiery fight until Pantoja locked up a rear-naked choke submission in the second round, and with both men improving their game since then, the rematch will be no different. Once again, flyweights are flying - no pun intended - way under the radar.

Pimblett looking to get his mojo back

Paddy "The Baddy" Pimblett joined the UFC in 2021 as one of the most talked-about prospects in years. The Liverpool native - who, like Conor McGregor, made a name for himself in the Cage Warriors promotion in Europe - had the looks and fighting style of a potential superstar.

As far as in-cage results go, Pimblett backed up the hype at the start. He rattled off three straight stoppage wins, including a wild first-round knockout in his Octagon debut.

Things came to a bit of a halt in Pimblett's last fight when the 28-year-old beat Jared Gordon by unanimous decision. It was a controversial result, with 23 of 24 media members who scored the fight on MMADecisions.com giving the win to Gordon. This was almost exactly a year ago, and since then, Pimblett has been on the sidelines recovering from an ankle injury he suffered in that fight. As such, Pimblett lost just about all of the momentum he once had.

One lackluster performance is certainly excusable for any fighter, especially a young prospect, but many MMA fans won't always agree. MMA is a fast-moving sport, and you're always judged by your last fight.

Pimblett's bout against former interim lightweight champion Tony Ferguson on Saturday is huge for his career. If he wins impressively, that momentum he lost over the last 12 months comes right back. But if Pimblett suffers his first UFC defeat, it would hurt his potential star power.