UFC 289 best bets: Side with Oliveira to get back on track
Saturday's UFC 289 features a women's bantamweight title fight between champion Amanda Nunes and Irene Aldana.
Also on the card, former lightweight champ Charles Oliveira takes on Beneil Dariush in a highly anticipated, pivotal showdown.
Nunes is heavily favored to retain the 135-pound throne in the main event, sitting at -330 on theScore Bet. At those odds, and given the fact Nunes is only one fight removed from a shocking loss to Julianna Pena, it's best to avoid wagering on this one.
Before the action gets underway at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, here are the two best bets for the event.
Charles Oliveira (+125) vs. Beneil Dariush
Y'all must've forgot.
Sure, Oliveira is coming off a one-sided loss to current 155-pound titleholder Islam Makhachev, and Dariush has won eight in a row. But against anybody other than Makhachev, Oliveira has looked unstoppable in recent years. There is no reason he should be the underdog against Dariush.
To be clear, this is a competitive fight on paper, and it'll likely play out as such in the Octagon. Both men are known for their grappling abilities, but they have both evolved into technical, powerful strikers as well. Oliveira won't steamroll Dariush. But he has enough advantages that should give him the victory.
There's an argument to be made that Dariush is a better positional grappler than Oliveira. He usually can control his opponents for longer stretches, keeping calm and composed. But Oliveira is craftier and more dangerous. He can catch you in a submission from all angles, and he's the master of the rear-naked choke. "Do Bronx" has the most finishes in UFC history for a reason.
On the feet, Oliveira's technique appears to be stronger than Dariush's. The latter packs a punch, but his striking still comes off as a bit awkward. If this turns into a striking matchup, I'd lean toward Oliveira to edge it out.
So, expect Oliveira to return to his winning ways against Dariush, and +125 is just too sweet to pass up.
Nate Landwehr (+200) vs. Dan Ige
OK, listen. On paper, Ige is the better fighter. But momentum is a heck of a thing, and Nate "The Train" is running hot.
In the last two years, Landwehr has gone from an action fighter who went 1-2 in his first three UFC appearances to a legitimate top-25 featherweight (and still an action fighter), and he could break into the top 15 with a victory over Ige on Saturday.
Landwehr fights with a lot of aggression and chaos, and he's not always the most technically sound. But at the same time, he overwhelms his opponents, and that's why he's had success. He's the gutsiest guy around, and it's done him fairly well so far; he's on a three-fight winning streak, with victories over the likes of David Onama and Austin Lingo.
This is a big step up for Landwehr, but my money's on the 34-year-old to gut out a narrow decision victory over Ige, who - although he's coming off a knockout win earlier this year - is 1-3 in his last three outings.
Here are the full odds for UFC 289 on June 10:
Main card
- Amanda Nunes (-330) vs. Irene Aldana (+260)
- Beneil Dariush (-145) vs. Charles Oliveira (+125)
- Mike Malott (-220) vs. Adam Fugitt (+180)
- Dan Ige (-245) vs. Nate Landwehr (+200)
- Marc-Andre Barriault (-125) vs. Eryk Anders (+100)
Preliminary card
- Nassourdine Imavov (-150) vs. Chris Curtis (+125)
- Miranda Maverick (-320) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (+255)
- Aoriqileng (-123) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (-102)
- Blake Bilder (-245) vs. Kyle Nelson (+200)
Early preliminary card
- David Dvorak (-290) vs. Stephen Erceg (+235)
- Diana Belbita (-112) vs. Maria Oliveira (-112)