10 thoughts about the blockbuster Chimaev-Diaz fight

Held hostage no longer.

Nate Diaz will finally compete in the final bout on his current UFC contract. The fan-favorite welterweight, a guaranteed lofty underdog, has agreed to face undefeated phenom Khamzat Chimaev in the main event of UFC 279 on Sept. 10 in Las Vegas.

Frustrated he hasn't fought since June 2021, Diaz has talked - mainly via Twitter - about wanting to leave the UFC for several months. During a rare media appearance last week, Diaz said he had no interest in re-signing with the promotion and wanted to fulfill his contractual obligations as soon as possible.

With one of the UFC's biggest stars seemingly on his way out, here are some thoughts about the upcoming fight with Chimaev and Diaz's future.

1. This was the fight the promotion was always going to make. It's no surprise that Chimaev is the last opponent on Diaz's UFC deal. When a disgruntled fighter wants out, the promotion eventually has no choice but to oblige (generally by letting them fight out their contract), but it'll always make a valiant effort to do so on its terms. That means no happy swan song - instead, that particular fighter gets the toughest matchup out there.

That's essentially what we're getting with Chimaev-Diaz. The UFC sees big things in Chimaev, and it wants him to get the rub from one of the most popular fighters in MMA history while also using Diaz for one last big bout before he departs.

Diaz could've said no to Chimaev, but it's not a shock that he took the fight - he's always been one to like a challenge. But even more pertinent to this situation, he made it clear last week on "The MMA Hour" that he would agree to any opponent simply because he wants to leave. With that knowledge, the UFC was always going to offer its own preferred opponent, not Diaz's.

2. The fight won't be competitive. There's not much else to say other than this matchup is very favorable for Chimaev. He'll be bigger, stronger, and honestly, probably just better everywhere. Chimaev should have no issue landing the more impactful strikes on the feet and controlling Diaz on the ground. This one could get ugly.

3. Diaz deserves better. Sure, the UFC is a business - a well-oiled, never-ending machine that brings new fighters in and spits old ones out. The goal of this fight is to elevate Chimaev to stardom and hurt Diaz's appeal in free agency, but the latter shouldn't end his contract, and likely his UFC career, on this matchup. Yes, it's a pay-per-view main event, so the promotion clearly still values Diaz in that regard ... but it's also giving him Khamzat freakin' Chimaev. Diaz has done a lot for the UFC - he deserved a better sendoff than this. Dustin Poirier, for instance, would have been a more appropriate opponent, and it still would have been a blockbuster fight.

4. Would a loss hurt Diaz's stock as a free agent? Honestly, not really, because this is a fight he's supposed to lose. Also, consider this: The Diaz brothers are far beyond wins and losses. Their fanbase is always going to care about them. Don't agree? Well, Diaz has one win since 2016 and is still one of the most talked-about athletes in the sport.

A shocking upset of Chimaev would certainly make Diaz the talk of the town as he pursues other opportunities (and it would be a massive "eff you" to the UFC and its president Dana White), but he'll be just fine even if Chimaev ragdolls him.

5. If Diaz loses to Chimaev, is that really the end? Highly likely, yes. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Diaz leaves the UFC only to return a year or two later. The promotion would probably welcome Diaz back with open arms if he realizes the opportunities outside the Octagon aren't as attractive as expected. However, their relationship is pretty sour, and Diaz isn't the type of guy to forget about that. He also doesn't need the money - at this point in his career, it seems like he wants to do what makes him the happiest. Plus, Diaz is 37 years old, so he won't be competing in combat sports that much longer anyway.

6. What if he wins? This would be when things get slightly interesting. If Diaz beats Chimaev, the No. 3-ranked welterweight, then him being in line for a title shot technically isn't out of question - in fact, giving him one would probably be the UFC's first choice. Convincing him to stick around past the Chimaev fight seems impossible, but offering him a matchup against the winner of Kamaru Usman versus Leon Edwards 2 would be as good of a Hail Mary attempt as you'll get to win Diaz over.

7. Assuming Diaz leaves the UFC after the Chimaev fight, do all roads lead to Jake Paul? Diaz has talked about it, Paul has talked about it, and this is the clearest the path has ever been to a fight between them coming to fruition. So yes, as crazy as it might sound, there's no reason to think this isn't what Diaz wants next. Paul faces Hasim Rahman Jr. on Aug. 6, and then Diaz meets Chimaev about a month later, so the timing could very well be perfect. Don't be surprised if we get an early 2023 showdown between Paul and Diaz.

8. Does a win set up a title shot for Chimaev? It's funny because beating an unranked fighter as a top contender usually doesn't warrant any sort of advancement in a division. But in this scenario, you have to think Chimaev would be next in line for either Usman or Edwards with a victory. One could argue that Chimaev earned a title shot by defeating Gilbert Burns in a "Fight of the Year" candidate in April and that beating Diaz in a marquee main event would just be the cherry on top.

9. Five rounds could make this fight interesting. Chimaev-Diaz is definitely more intriguing as a five-round main event than if it were just three rounds. Of course, Chimaev could get Diaz to the mat within five or 10 minutes and pound him out for a decisive TKO win, which seems like a logical outcome. But what if Diaz weathers the storm? The first time Chimaev ever went the distance - and into a third round - was against Burns. He passed that test, but five-round fights are a different kind of beast, and Diaz is known to thrive in long fights. The later this matchup goes, the more it plays to the underdog's advantage.

10. Who loses out the most with Chimaev-Diaz set? Poirier, without a doubt. He's been campaigning for a fight with Diaz since December, just days after he lost to Charles Oliveira in a lightweight title bout. This matchup could've been Poirier's big bounce-back moment, as this was the one massive fight on the table for him. And now here he is, healthy and still without a dance partner seven months later.