Coaches debate: Are we sleeping on Burns in Chimaev fight?

On Saturday at UFC 273, we'll find out if rising sensation Khamzat Chimaev is as ready as many MMA pundits believe he is to make a run at the welterweight title.

Chimaev, who dominated his first four UFC opponents in ways we hadn't seen before, will face his toughest test yet in the form of No. 2-ranked contender Gilbert Burns.

theScore spoke to three coaches - Xtreme Couture's Eric Nicksick, New England Cartel's Tyson Chartier, and Sean Madden - about Chimaev being a heavy favorite, whether we're overlooking Burns, and the fascinating stylistic matchup that could unfold.

(Editor's note: Responses have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)

Why is Chimaev such a big favorite?

Nicksick: It's recency bias. It's the way that guys are winning their fights. People are remembered by their last fight. The way he's dismantled everybody he's fought, I think that's probably why you're seeing the line the way it is.

Chartier: I think it's the gym rumors that have leaked out, and then the people that are backing him because of the stories they've heard. Remember Joe Riggs? He got a title shot real quick, and it was really just because of what people were saying he was going to do, not necessarily what he did so far in the Octagon. I think that's relevant to Khamzat right now. You're looking at the fact that he's 10-0, 4-0 in the UFC, and you're like, "Wow, this guy's legit." And then you hear all the stories out of the gym about how he's ragdolling these light heavyweights. I think everybody is just very, very high on him. I'm surprised the line is as high as it is, but I understand how MMA works.

Madden: In the UFC, you can catch momentum at the right time, and you can get this hype train moving. We've seen this with a lot of guys in the past. That's not to say Khamzat isn't very skilled, but I think a lot of it is the UFC's marketing machine. To see the odds like that against someone as established as Gilbert Burns, it's almost disrespectful. It's pretty crazy to see that. Of course, Khamzat's performances play a big role in that, too, but I think it's just right place at the right time. He caught the wave and is riding it, and the UFC does a really good job with that.

Should Chimaev be so heavily favored?

Nicksick: I think the line is very wide. I think it's very disrespectful to Burns and his pedigree and how long he's been in the sport. I think if you are going to bet it, there's absolutely value on a guy like Gilbert.

Chartier: No. A lot of it is recency bias and the hype behind him. I think Khamzat should be a slight favorite, just based on the body of work that Gilbert has had. If you look at the guys he's been beating - and he had a loss to Usman, whatever - I think he deserves a little more respect in the betting lines, but I get why it is how it is.

Madden: Against someone like Gilbert, I don't think so. He's a 25-fight veteran of the sport. He did fight for the title recently, he's fought a ton of really tough guys in two divisions, and he's coming off a win. I could understand the odds if Gilbert was on the decline, had lost a couple fights in a row, and they were setting Khamzat up to make his big breakthrough here. But that doesn't really feel like the case to me. I still think Gilbert is a scary, serious, and legitimate contender in that division. I think he's grown a lot since his loss to Kamaru Usman in the title fight, so to see these odds as wide as they are, it feels a little strange to me.

How do you see Chimaev's wrestling and Burns' grappling colliding?

Nicksick: I've been fortunate to train with both of them. I've known Gilbert since a very young age. I remember telling people when Gilbert came in that he's the best jiu-jitsu guy I've ever really seen in the room. He causes problems off his back, he causes problems on top. He can get the fight where he wants it. He has a good wrestling base as well.

But I think stylistically, for Khamzat, I don't think he's going to be afraid to get on the floor with Gilbert. A lot of the reason why is because of the tie-up. When he gets guys down, it's usually off the body lock. He ties the legs up as he does to get to half guard, so there's not a lot of guard play to go along there. My point is it negates a lot of the jiu-jitsu.

Also, I think the fight could turn into a striking battle. This might be a scenario where the wrestling and the jiu-jitsu cancel each other out, and it ends up on the feet.

Chartier: On the feet, it's kind of a tossup. Burns has some pop in his hands, but he's also gotten knocked out by other people. We don't know what Khamzat's chin is like because no one has really tested him. So that's kind of a wild card there.

But then, on the ground, I have to think the straight jiu-jitsu advantage goes to Burns, but the wrestling advantage goes to Khamzat. So then it comes down to, OK, is Burns rolling for leg locks the whole time? You're not going to try to go crazy with jiu-jitsu against a really high-level wrestler that has high-level training partners. You're probably going to have to create scrambles and stuff like that.

Madden: I think it's a really fantastic stylistic matchup. We need to consider Khamzat's size and Gilbert's experience. Both of those are going to be factors in this fight. I don't think it's a secret to anyone that Khamzat is going to try to take him down and wrestle and use his size advantage to stay on top. I think with Gilbert's experience and grappling pedigree, he's going to look to create scrambles, he's going to look for submission attempts when Khamzat's trying to do damage, and he'll probably try to get back to his feet - at least early in the fight.

What's one thing you hope to learn about Chimaev in this fight?

Nicksick: I think all of us want to see him face a little adversity. Maybe it's tied 1-1 going into Round 3 - how does he pull it out? How does he do if it's not going his way? Those things are very important. That's something we haven't seen out of Khamzat. Good for him. It's a great problem to have. But when he starts getting into the upper echelon of fighters in the welterweight division, I think that's going to be an important thing to see.

Chartier: I'd like to see how he deals with being on his back and dealing with going into the later rounds from a cardio standpoint. It's easy to be the bully and to be always winning. You don't get tired when you're doing that, you don't get hurt, you don't have to suck it up. At the very least, I'd like to see Burns push him, put him in some bad spots, and see how Khamzat reacts to that.

Madden: He needs to face some adversity in this fight, and I think he needs to go to the later rounds. If we saw Khamzat beat Gilbert this weekend by decision, and we saw striking, we saw grappling, we saw wrestling, we saw maybe Gilbert sweep him and get on top, and Khamzat survives on bottom, we saw him go to the third round where they're tired, and it becomes a dog fight, and Khamzat is still able to perform under those circumstances and come out with the win, then it's like, OK, this guy is a serious contender.

But when you're winning all of your fights so early, it's just so hard to tell. He is very talented, 100%. But I am always a little bit slower to jump on that hype train because there is just so much to fighting. If you haven't been through an entire round where everyone gets tired, that will show you a lot about a fighter.

Who are you picking to win?

Nicksick: I just love Chimaev's energy and enthusiasm. I kind of hope it's a close fight, and I hope it goes into Round 3. I think Khamzat will pull it out. I'm going to say decision.

Chartier: It's so hard because I feel like we don't know enough about Khamzat - other than what we know from the gym - for him to be picked over someone like Burns. But I think I'm going to go with Khamzat, just because Burns is a 155er who went up to 170 pounds, whereas Khamzat is a 170er who can also hang at 185. I think they are a weight class apart when you really look at it, and weight always plays a bigger factor when you're a wrestler. So I think the size favors Khamzat, not necessarily the resume, so to speak.

I don't know if he'll finish Burns. If he does, it's on the feet. I don't see him finishing Burns on the ground. Burns is too crafty - he'll stay safe and create scrambles. I think if he does, he'll clip him on the feet and finish him on the ground. I don't think he'll take him down and finish him that way.

Madden: I think Khamzat is going to win. Gilbert is going to have to fight close to a perfect fight to beat Khamzat, and I think Khamzat can still make a couple mistakes and still be OK because of some of those factors, like the size advantage. I think if he wins, it's early like it has been. And if Gilbert does win, his best chance is going to be later in the fight.