Coaches debate: How does Masvidal beat Usman?
Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal are set to collide for the second time in the past year in Saturday's UFC 261 main event.
Usman dominated Masvidal in their first fight last summer, but Masvidal stepped in on six days' notice, and now he'll have a chance to reverse the outcome after a full training camp.
theScore spoke to three top coaches - New England Cartel's Tyson Chartier, Glory MMA & Fitness' James Krause, and Fight Ready MMA's Eddie Cha - about how the rematch between Usman and Masvidal will compare to the first meeting and what the challenger needs to do to capture the welterweight title.
(Editor's note: Responses have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)
Masvidal had a full camp ahead of the rematch. How big of a difference will that make?
Chartier: He's got some smart coaches around him that study a lot of film. I'm interested to see what adjustments they make. I think last time, it was almost a moral victory, like, don't get finished. They were going for the knockout, but once they got to the clinch, it was like, "Alright, just don't get taken down, and we'll fight for the next round." He lost on control and foot stomps for the most part, right? It will be interesting to see how aggressive he is at trying to get off the fence and then how much more aggressive he might be on the feet because he knows his gas tank is full. So maybe he's a little bit more willing to take his chances on the feet at range, because knowing if he does get taken down, he's got the gas tank to try to get up a few times.
I feel like it has the ability to be a big difference-maker. But it all depends on how ready you were on those six days. We don't really know. He was going into that fight, saying, "I've been training the whole time," but we don't really know what level he was training at. And he had a big weight cut last minute; that always factors in. If he wasn't really ready last time in comparison to how he is this time in terms of his cardio and mental prep and all that stuff, then I think the six weeks will pay huge dividends.
Krause: Anytime someone has time to prepare, I think it's better. But I do feel like it's still going to be an extremely difficult fight for him. Usman has a great ability to dictate where the fight takes place. The guys that are good strikers he puts on the fence, and the guys that are good grapplers he strikes with. He can fight everywhere.
From a game plan standpoint, what does Masvidal have to do to beat Usman?
Chartier: He has to have urgency. Obviously, he has to manage distance. You don't want Usman to come out, close the distance, get in the clinch, push Masvidal up against the fence. Even if Usman doesn't take Masvidal down, he can still push him up against the fence, which is kind of what he did last fight. I think Masvidal has to manage distance better in the open mat. He has to have more urgency to stay out of the clinch or to get off the fence if he does get put there.
Against a good wrestler, you're not going to want to throw lazy kicks. You're going to want to set up your kicks because a wrestler can catch them and take you down. You're not going to want to throw big, looping shots because they shoot underneath them. Usman is a phenomenal wrestler. You throw a big lead hook lunging in against someone like that, you're basically giving him a takedown. If Usman is going to get a takedown, you have to make him work for it. Don't throw strikes that are going to put you in harm's way of a takedown. Keep everything down the middle. Feint a ton. Make him worry about your strikes, so he's reacting the whole time. That is going to make him more tense on the feet.
If Masvidal wants to make sure he's not laying on his back the whole fight, he can't play it safe. You have to take one to give one. Every now and then, when you're on your back, there's going to be that moment where you just have to buckle down and go. You might take one shot, but now you're back to your feet. Maybe you have to give up your back for a split second and jump up. But if you're just playing it safe - really good defense from your back, protecting yourself, stopping them from advancing position - you're also not getting up. You have to take a bit of a risk to get up. You have to have a sense of urgency to create that space, create a bit of a scramble, and use it to get up. You can't just let the minutes and the seconds tick away.
Cha: The game plan for them is definitely going to be keeping it in the center of the cage and not letting Usman put him up against that cage. But it's easier said than done. Usman has done that to literally anyone he's wanted to, whether it be Tyron Woodley or someone else. I don't know if wrestling is something that can be fixed in six weeks. Demian Maia put Masvidal on his back, and I know that was a while back, but it's definitely not his strength. It's going to be interesting to see if Masvidal can keep it in the center. He has a great chance to win if he can keep it standing.
He definitely needs to throw a lot of feints. Throw that jab, whether you're hitting it or not. Stay long with teep kicks. I think the body shots will help. He's going to have to take some risks. Look at Masvidal's fight with Ben Askren. Going for the flying knee right away was a risk because if he missed, Askren would've taken him down. Maybe they start fast with a head kick. I'm not sure. But if I were game-planning for Masvidal, I'd have to put some tricks in there.
Krause: I think it's quite obvious he needs to create some space. He has to keep the fight standing, he has to keep his back off the fence. That's pretty clear cut. His best chance of winning is open-mat striking. That's how he knocked out Darren Till. He's done well in the open mat. He's a good striker. That's what he has to do.
For Masvidal to avoid the takedowns and clinch position more than he did in the first fight, I think it starts with owning the middle. Usman is so good in the clinch. He can force you in the clinch. Masvidal has to own the middle and keep his back off that fence. It's not, "how does he get off the fence?" - you have to look back a little bit sooner. I think he just needs to stick behind the jab, and he does a good job of that.
Will the rematch be more competitive, less competitive, or the same as the first fight?
Chartier: I think it will be more competitive. I don't have any reason to think Kamaru shouldn't win. He's getting better on the feet, and he's looking as good as he's ever looked. But I think you're going to see a more urgent Masvidal. I don't think he's going to accept being against the cage or just clinching with Usman and taking some foot stomps. All those positions he got stuck in in the first fight, he's going to have answers for those right away. He's not going to rest in bad positions; he's going to probably try to push the pace a little bit more. And if he does any resting, it will be when he's in a dominant position. I think you'll see a more confident Masvidal in what he's bringing into this fight, knowing that he had a full camp and knowing where he fell short last time.
Krause: I definitely expect it to be more competitive. The problem is what people don't factor in: People don't realize it's a motherf----- over on Fight Island (the location of the first fight). The plane ride is 16 hours. The sleep is the exact opposite of what you're used to. I was going to bed at like 8 a.m. It's a f------ nightmare over there.
You can't watch that fight and tell me that was Usman's prime either. He looked like shit in that fight, too. I don't mean that in a disrespectful way. I said this as it was happening: "This fight needs to take place under normal circumstances because both these boys look worn out, they look tired, they look exhausted." You could tell that their best product - for either one of them - was not put out that night. I do expect it to be more competitive. Masvidal is difficult to take down. He's good in the clinch. He's good everywhere. He's extremely good.
Cha: I think it's going to be somewhat the same. I think Jorge will be in better shape, so maybe he can get off the cage, explode more, and not try to conserve his energy. But I can't see it being too different. These wrestlers are tough. It's going to be hard for Masvidal to keep Usman off him. Usman understands that the name of the game is to win. He doesn't care how boring it is. Usman doesn't need to take risks. I doubt he'll strike with Masvidal. He'll use his striking to set up takedowns or cage control.