UFC 256 predictions: Will Ferguson get back on track?

Ahead of Saturday's UFC 256 in Las Vegas, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the top bouts.

Flyweight championship

Deiveson Figueiredo (20-1)
vs.
Brandon Moreno (18-5-1)

After dismantling Alex Perez in under two minutes, Figueiredo showed in his first title defense three weeks ago that he plans on being the flyweight champion for a long time.

Many considered Perez one of the few fighters who could give Figueiredo some problems. After the champion's easy victory, I don't see anyone in the division right now who could dethrone him - that includes Moreno.

There's no doubt the challenger is a game opponent. Moreno is a slick grappler and has made huge improvements since his stint on "The Ultimate Fighter" and his UFC signing in 2016. But Figueiredo has hit his stride this year, and he's too good in every area.

Expect Figueiredo to pick apart Moreno in the stand-up department as the more precise and powerful striker. The Brazilian titleholder should also be able to neutralize Moreno's ground attempts, or maybe even get him to the mat.

Moreno is one of the UFC's toughest flyweights, so I could see him taking Figueiredo five rounds. My money, though, is on the champion finding his fifth consecutive finish before the final horn.

THE PICK: Figueiredo, third-round submission

Lightweight bout

Tony Ferguson (25-4)
vs.
Charles Oliveira (29-8, 1 NC)

On paper, this matchup is the leading candidate for "Fight of the Night" - and it's a difficult one to call.

Ferguson is coming off a brutal loss to Justin Gaethje. At 36 years old, it's a defeat that may have put the former interim lightweight champion on a downward trajectory. Meanwhile, Oliveira has never looked better. "Do Bronx" has won seven straight fights, his longest winning streak in the UFC.

However, I'm siding with Ferguson to prove he's still one of the best lightweights on the planet.

"El Cucuy" should have a slight advantage on the feet, and I think he can fend off Oliveira's submission attempts. Ferguson is also a tremendous - and unorthodox - grappler.

We'll see a bit of everything from this intriguing lightweight battle, but expect Ferguson to get the job done after a hard-fought 15 minutes.

THE PICK: Ferguson, unanimous decision

Middleweight bout

Kevin Holland (20-5)
vs.
Ronaldo Souza (26-8, 1 NC)

Souza enters his middleweight return as a slight underdog against Holland, but I'm pretty confident the Brazilian veteran will get back on track.

"Jacare" is one of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners in the UFC, and he should dominate Holland on the mat. Holland was choked out by Brendan Allen in 2019, the last time he faced a grappler. Allen doesn't compare to Souza with regards to their submission abilities.

This isn't to say Holland doesn't have a path to victory. If he maintains range against his opponent and if Souza doesn't try to get the fight to the ground often enough, then the lengthy Holland could pick him apart and win by either decision or knockout. Souza is 41 years old and past his prime.

Stylistically, this is a favorable matchup for Souza. He has the tools to dictate the fight, but it's just a matter of using them.

THE PICK: Souza, second-round submission

Heavyweight bout

Junior dos Santos (21-8)
vs.
Ciryl Gane (6-0)

Top prospect Gane will look to take the next step toward the UFC heavyweight title when he faces former champion Dos Santos in the opening fight on Saturday's main card.

While the Frenchman probably shouldn't be a 4-1 betting favorite, it's tough to pick against him. We saw that Dos Santos' chin isn't what it used to be in his last fight. The Brazilian was edging out Jairzinho Rozenstruik before taking a few solid shots that put him away in the second round.

This makes me believe Gane can be down on the scorecards but could still finish Dos Santos and win the fight as long as he connects at any point.

Gane is a powerful puncher, and his ground game is underrated. After spending nearly a year on the sidelines, expect to see some new tricks from him. As long as the rising star doesn't give Dos Santos too much respect, Gane will have his way with the former titleholder.

THE PICK: Gane, second-round knockout