UFC 254 best bets: Back Cannonier in co-main event
UFC 254 takes place Saturday at Flash Forum in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. It features a lightweight title fight between champion Khabib Nurmagomedov and interim champ Justin Gaethje.
Nurmagomedov is a big favorite, currently sitting at -360. Though I like "The Eagle" to retain his championship, there isn't nearly enough value to make a bet at that price. Gaethje possesses the tools - including pressure and wrestling defense - that could give Nurmagomedov a serious fight, so I'll be avoiding this one altogether.
If you're adamant about betting Nurmagomedov, the T/KO or submission prop has a solid price of -120. And if you're going the other way, a sprinkle on Gaethje at +280 wouldn't be a horrible wager by any means.
With that, here are the two best bets for the pay-per-view event.
Ankalaev-Cutelaba under 1.5 rounds (-108)
All one has to do is rewatch the first fight between Magomed Ankalaev and Ion Cutelaba to know this is a steal.
The two light heavyweight prospects met at UFC Norfolk in February, with Ankalaev picking up a controversial TKO win in 38 seconds. He landed a series of head kicks that appeared to hurt Cutelaba, and the referee stepped in as Cutelaba was throwing a punch. Cutelaba immediately protested the stoppage and said afterward he pretended to look dazed in an attempt to lure his opponent in.
Ideally, we won't see another controversial ending, but expect another quick start - and early finish - in the rematch. Neither Ankalaev nor Cutelaba back down from a fight, and they're two of the hardest hitters in the 205-pound division.
However, Cutelaba would be wise to change his approach, as he almost immediately got cracked against Ankalaev. He'd likely do well - or at least better - fighting a more patient, measured bout. But looking for the kill is in Cutelaba's DNA, and it seems unlikely he would revamp his game plan.
As for Ankalaev, there's no reason to think he will sit back in the rematch considering the early success he had in February. Yes, the stoppage was ridiculously premature, but Ankalaev could've easily landed a couple more shots and put Cutelaba out. Ankalaev will enter the second bout under the assumption he can put on a repeat performance as the more accurate striker.
The finish in the first bout was certainly no fluke, either. Nearly half of Ankalaev's 13 pro wins and 12 of Cutelaba's 17 pro fights have ended in a first-round stoppage. These guys are finishers. When they face each other in the Octagon, a first-round stoppage is simply the most probable outcome. It's easy to see the value in an under 1.5 rounds prop at nearly plus money.
Jared Cannonier by T/KO (+150) vs. Robert Whittaker
Something tells me Cannonier is going to have an exceptional performance against Whittaker, a former middleweight champion, in Saturday's co-main event.
"The Killa Gorilla" has racked up three straight finishes since moving down to 185 pounds in 2018, including a ferocious TKO of top contender Jack Hermansson. Expect him to keep that momentum going against Whittaker.
As one of the most powerful middleweights in the promotion, Cannonier will have an advantage in the stand-up department. Whittaker's chin is a little suspect after two wars with Yoel Romero and a devastating loss to current champion Israel Adesanya, and I don't see it holding up for three rounds against Cannonier.
Whittaker is the more well-rounded and technical fighter, but it will only take one shot from Cannonier to put the former champion out. Whittaker could look to take the bout to the ground, but he hasn't wrestled much in his UFC fights and I don't imagine that will change Saturday.
You could play it safe and take Cannonier straight at -115. But it would be surprising if the 36-year-old won via decision or submission, so you might as well take the plus-money on the T/KO prop and reap the extra profits later.
Here are the full odds from theScore Bet for UFC 254 on Oct. 24:
Main card
Khabib Nurmagomedov (-360) vs. Justin Gaethje (+280)
Robert Whittaker (-115) vs. Jared Cannonier (-115)
Alexander Volkov (-175) vs. Walt Harris (+145)
Phil Hawes (-270) vs. Jacob Malkoun (+220)
Lauren Murphy (-260) vs. Liliya Shakirova (+210)
Magomed Ankalaev (-290) vs. Ion Cutelaba (+235)
Preliminary card
Stefan Struve (-120) vs. Tai Tuivasa (-110)
Casey Kenney (-190) vs. Nathaniel Wood (+160)
Alex Oliveira (-135) vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov (+105)
Da-un Jung (-400) vs. Sam Alvey (+300)
Early preliminary card
Miranda Maverick (-370) vs. Liana Jojua (+290)
Joel Alvarez (-150) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (+120)