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UFC Long Island predictions: Gastelum looks to join 185-lb elite

Jason da Silva / USA TODAY Sports

Prior to UFC on FOX 25 in Uniondale, N.Y., on Saturday, theScore's Themistoklis Alexis and Alexander K. Lee give their predictions on the evening's noteworthy bouts.

Main Card

Middleweight

Chris Weidman (9-3 UFC, 13-3)
vs.
Kelvin Gastelum (8-2 UFC, 13-2)

Lee: Anyone who still believes in Weidman can talk themselves into his three consecutive losses being as much a result of bad timing as a sign of decline.

He slipped on a kick he shouldn't have thrown against Luke Rockhold. He just got caught by a flying knee in the third round of his battle with Yoel Romero. He may have played himself in his strange loss to Gegard Mousasi.

And if you can believe all that, then you can believe that the Weidman who conquered Anderson Silva (twice) and once looked unbeatable still exists, and that he'll show up Saturday.

Weidman's typically ended up on the wrong side of the coin toss when it comes to the randomness of firefights, so rather than take that risk, he should consider going to his grappling roots and gutting out a decision win.

THE PICK: Weidman

Alexis: Both of Weidman's fights in his home state have ended bitterly, and the going won't get much easier when he meets Gastelum in his native Long Island.

The 25-year-old Gastelum has submitted two flawless performances in his return to 185 pounds (March no-contest notwithstanding), and what he'll give up in size to Weidman, he'll make up for with the speed, footwork, and crisp boxing he flashed in his drubbing of Tim Kennedy at UFC 206. Look for Gastelum to remain fleet of foot and drain Weidman's gas tank with stout takedown defense before pouncing for a late-round TKO.

THE PICK: Gastelum

Featherweight

Dennis Bermudez (9-4 UFC, 16-6)
vs.
Darren Elkins (12-4 UFC, 22-5)

Alexis: Predicting what will ensue when "The Menace" meets "The Damage" is a tall order. Talented though he is, Bermudez tends to give his foes a fighting chance by flirting with danger and precarious positions, and that's good news for Elkins, who last scored a shocking comeback KO of Mirsad Bektic at UFC 209.

Still, Bermudez's versatility gives him more ways to win than Elkins, a relative one-trick pony. It won't come easy, but Bermudez should be named the victor after three grueling rounds, whether he outstrikes Elkins on the feet or with his opponent's back pinned to the canvas.

THE PICK: Bermudez

Lee: The time for doubting Elkins is over.

A past scouting report would paint Elkins as a safety-first fighter who thrives when things are going his way and flounders when they aren't. That assessment went out the window in his last bout when he reached down into reserves nobody knew were there to take out Bektic in a fight that Elkins was losing badly.

Elkins will have the same slow start against Bermudez - and the same result if he can avoid an early finish, something that isn't Bermudez's specialty. The winner will be whichever fighter makes the best out of scrambles and draining clinch work, two departments where Elkins excels. Bermudez is no slouch when it comes to grappling, but holding off the persistent Elkins for three rounds might be too much to ask.

THE PICK: Elkins

Light Heavyweight

Patrick Cummins (5-4 UFC, 9-4)
vs.
Gian Villante (5-5 UFC, 15-8)

Lee: All it takes is one good shot from Villante to put Cummins down, and it's a safe bet that he lands it.

As good at Cummins is at using his wrestling to neutralize strikers, he's also proven to be a hittable target. Cummins is no stranger to being slept and, at some point, this will turn into a brawl he's ill-equipped for. It might take a round to get warmed up, but Villante wins this one by knockout.

THE PICK: Villante

Alexis: "Cerebral" has rarely been used to describe Villante's or Cummins' styles, meaning this one will come down to whose clip gets emptied first.

Cummins has been knocked out in four career defeats, which doesn't bode well against a slugger in Villante, but he can turn the tables if he rides his D-I wrestling. Assuming reason prevails and he avoids a scrap with Villante, "Durkin" should score a takedown before long and pound the New York native out for his second straight win.

THE PICK: Cummins

Bantamweight

Jimmie Rivera (4-0 UFC, 20-1)
vs.
Thomas Almeida (5-1 UFC, 22-1)

Alexis: When stick-and-move meets non-stop action, the methodical Rivera will get his hand raised.

"El Terror" has built a 19-fight win streak with stellar striking and range control, attributes that will serve him all too well against Almeida, a Chute Boxe product with 17 knockouts in 22 pro victories. The Brazilian will look to keep Rivera on the back foot, but the 28-year-old will remain stoic, punch in bunches, and leave Almeida swinging at air en route to another lopsided decision.

THE PICK: Rivera

Lee: This is a scary fight for Rivera, who could put himself in position for a title shot with one more win. The matchmakers didn't do him any favors by pairing him up with Almeida, a Brazilian striking stud.

To beat Almeida, you have to be smart. Fortunately for Rivera, he's one of the craftiest fighters at 135 pounds. Opponents haven't been able to figure out the 28-year-old New Jersey native and Almeida will struggle to cut off the cage and land his most effective techniques. This could be close, but if it comes down to the scorecards, Rivera takes it.

THE PICK: Rivera

Preliminary Bout

Welterweight

Ryan LaFlare (6-1 UFC, 13-1)
vs.
Alex Oliveira (6-2 UFC, 16-4-1)

Lee: Don't sleep on LaFlare, even if that is the tactic he tends to use on most of his opponents. An unabashed "decisionator," the 33-year-old's inability to finish opponents means he's barely registered as a blip on the contenders' landscape despite compiling an impressive record. It hasn't helped that injuries have limited his Octagon appearances.

Oliveira is a far more dynamic fighter, but he's also prone to inconsistency. While he's been spectacular of late, a fighter as steady as LaFlare can still give him headaches. Bolstered by a supportive New York crowd, look for LaFlare to grind his way to a third consecutive win.

THE PICK: LaFlare

Alexis: LaFlare's mandate is no secret: takedown, smother, repeat. But he'll be as good as doomed if he can't get Oliveira in his clutches.

Facing a stout wrestler, Oliveira won't toss LaFlare around the cage the way he did Tim Means, but his edge in speed will earn him LaFlare's respect on the feet. As the stronger striker, "Cowboy" won't need long to piece up the Long Islander - provided the fight stays upright - and if he can keep LaFlare from dictating where the action goes, it'll be a matter of time before he stuns him and moves in for the finish.

THE PICK: Oliveira

Fight Alexis Lee
Chris Weidman vs. Kelvin Gastelum Gastelum Weidman
Dennis Bermudez vs. Darren Elkins Bermudez Elkins
Patrick Cummins vs. Gian Villante Cummins Villante
Jimmie Rivera vs. Thomas Almeida Rivera Rivera
Lyman Good vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Good Good
Rafael Natal vs. Eryk Anders Natal Anders
Ryan LaFlare vs. Alex Oliveira Oliveira LaFlare
Damian Grabowski vs. Chase Sherman Sherman Sherman
Kyle Bochniak vs. Jeremy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy
Brian Kelleher vs. Marlon Vera Kelleher Vera
Timothy Johnson vs. Junior Albini Johnson Johnson
Shane Burgos vs. Godofredo Pepey Burgos Pepey
Frankie Perez vs. Chris Wade Wade Wade

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