3 things to know about the Tulowitzki trade: Hoffman, Castro offer new hope for Rockies

by
Anthony Gruppuso / USA TODAY Sports

Rockies continue to reel on the mound

Since their inception more than two decades ago, the Rockies have yet to discover the formula for effective pitching in Denver, where the unforgiving altitude has frustrated each and every one of the club's efforts to develop a front-line ace.

It isn't for lack of trying. Over the last 23 years, the Rockies have selected pitchers with 18 of their 30 first-round picks in the annual amateur draft. Still, the Rockies haven't had a single pitcher stick around long enough to accrue even 20 wins above replacement. They're also one of two teams in the expansion era that haven't watched one of their pitchers make more than 210 starts.

A cursory glance at the most accomplished pitchers in franchise history reveals, frankly, a collection of overwhelmingly average pitchers who weren't terribly accomplished.

Name WAR ERA FIP xFIP K/9 GS
Ubaldo Jimenez 18.5 3.66 3.58 3.84 8.18 137
Aaron Cook 17.5 4.46 4.38 4.39 3.83 206
Jeff Francis 14.7 4.93 4.47 4.36 6.23 185
Jorge de la Rosa 12.9 4.29 4.08 3.88 7.86 167
Jason Jennings 12.5 4.74 4.6 4.6 5.95 156

This season? More of the same. The Rockies rank second-last in baseball in park-adjusted earned run average and have already used 10 different starters through the first four months of the campaign. Eddie Butler, the 46th overall pick in 2012, owns a 4.77 ERA with a 1.79 WHIP across 12 starts. Jonathan Gray, whom the Rockies selected with the third pick two years ago, is still toiling away in the Pacific Coast League.

Hoffman, Castro offer new hope for Colorado

So when general manager Jeff Bridich decided to ship his talented but aging (and expensive) franchise icon to Toronto on Monday night, he insisted the Blue Jays send back a pair of youngsters – Jeff Hoffman and Miguel Castro – who could reverse this stretch of futility that has persisted since the early 1990s. Though their development will be fraught with the same challenges that faced every other pitching prospect to pass through Colorado, the two youngsters offer new hope for a franchise whose most celebrated hurler remains, unambiguously, Ubaldo Jimenez.

Hoffman, a 6-foot-4 right-hander, was a candidate to go first overall in last year's draft before Tommy John surgery interrupted his junior season at East Carolina University and ultimately allowed the Blue Jays to gobble him up with the ninth selection. Although elbow woes postponed his minor league debut until just a few months ago, the 22-year-old was still identified this winter by Baseball America as Toronto's third-best prospect before ever throwing a professional pitch.

Promoted to Double-A New Hampshire earlier this month after just 11 outings in the Florida State League, Hoffman's brief professional résumé features a 2.93 ERA thus far, and though some reports haven't been as effusive of late, it was just months ago that Baseball Prospectus lauded his potential as "a future front-of-the-rotation power arm for multiple seasons to come."

Castro, meanwhile, elicited comparable praise after his masterful performance in spring training afforded him a spot in Toronto's bullpen mere months after he was plying his trade in High-A (and before he had thrown a pitch at even Double-A). Not surprisingly, his first trip around the majors was sobering. The 20-year-old was shipped back to the minors after managing a 4.38 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP over his first 13 relief appearances with the Blue Jays, who, despite his youth, still briefly anointed him as closer in April before sending him down for more seasoning.

Blessed with a plus-plus fastball and the makings of two above-average secondary offerings, though, Castro demonstrated – at age 20, mind you – the ability to survive against major league hitters, and further refinement could turn the 6-foot-5 Dominican into a legitimate difference-maker in Colorado.

As for Reyes ...?

Jose Reyes, the lone brand name in Colorado's haul, is poised to replace Tulowitzki at shortstop following two-and-a-half volatile seasons in Toronto. According to some reports, the Rockies may attempt to flip Reyes, though the $48 million he's guaranteed through 2017 could complicate those plans.

Reyes's inclusion in the deal, however, was more business than baseball, a necessary financial concession on Colorado's part in order for the Blue Jays to unload two of their top prospects while also taking responsibility for the $96 million guaranteed to Tulowitzki over the next five seasons.

Porous defense and waning plate discipline notwithstanding, though, Reyes still remains among the game's top shortstops despite his recent decline. Over the last two seasons, in fact, only five shortstop have provided more wins above replacement than Reyes, whose ability to hit for a high average (.285) and steal bases efficiently (16/18) have remained intact this summer as other skills have faded.

Name WAR G OPS HR SB
Jhonny Peralta 7.4 254 0.79 35 4
Troy Tulowitzki 6.5 178 0.927 33 1
Brandon Crawford 6.4 249 0.755 25 9
Alcides Escobar 5.8 250 0.691 5 38
Erick Aybar 5.7 251 0.687 9 22
Jose Reyes 4.6 212 0.72 13 46

If the Rockies are prepared to eat some of his contract, Reyes could be moved to a contender for even more prospect capital – another move that would bring the Rockies closer to the future Bridich envisioned when he parted ways with Tulowitzki on Monday night.

The Digest

Complete guide to the blockbuster Troy Tulowitzki trade

by theScore Staff
John Leyba / Denver Post / Getty

The Toronto Blue Jays and Colorado Rockies shocked the baseball world late Monday night with one of the most surprising deals in recent memory.

Toronto added more offense to its already potent lineup by acquiring superstar Troy Tulowitzki and reliever LaTroy Hawkins from Colorado for veteran shortstop Jose Reyes and a trio of minor-league prospects.

Blue Jays land Tulowitzki in blockbuster trade with Rockies

Tulowitzki says he was 'blindsided' by trade to Blue Jays

Blue Jays Reaction

The acquisition of Tulowitzki follows a recent pattern by Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos: Get the best player available at any position and sort out your strengths and weaknesses later. From a run-producing standpoint, it's a strategy that's been extremely effective.

Blue Jays help pitching by adding Tulowitzki to juggernaut lineup

Blue Jays unveil Tulowitzki: 'I come in this locker room expecting to win'

Rockies Reaction

Since their inception more than two decades ago, the Rockies have yet to discover the formula for effective pitching in Denver, where the unforgiving altitude has frustrated each and every one of the club's efforts to develop a front-line ace. Perhaps Jeff Hoffman or Miguel Castro can reverse this trend.

3 things to know about the Tulowitzki trade: Hoffman, Castro offer new hope for Rockies

Projected Blue Jays Lineup

# Pos Player Bats
1 2B Devon Travis R
2 3B Josh Donaldson R
3 RF Jose Bautista R
4 SS Troy Tulowitzki R
5 DH Edwin Encarnacion R
6 1B Justin Smoak S
7 C Russell Martin R
8 LF Danny Valencia R
9 CF Kevin Pillar R

More Reaction

Blue Jays teammates saddened by Reyes trade: 'We lose a guy that brought a lot of energy'

LaTroy Hawkins 'excited' to begin tenure with Blue Jays

VIDEO: Tulowitzki, traded for Reyes, foreshadowed future run-in with 1st MLB hit

Blue Jays GM on Tulowitzki deal: 'We're getting the best shortstop in baseball'

Further Reading

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports has the inside story on the shocking trade of Tulowitzki, who was reportedly assured by owner Dick Monfort that if the Rockies were to trade him, they were going to ask for his blessing first. That never happened:

The stunned silence of players early Tuesday morning, when word of the trade came down, spoke to the disappointment of losing Tulowitzki. As the Rockies stashed him in Weiss’ office to keep him from addressing a deal that early Tuesday remained unconfirmed by either team, the truth of Tulowitzki’s exit filtered into the clubhouse and left the players even more gobsmacked, according to sources.

In Colorado, Benjamin Hochman of the Denver Post says the Tulowitzki trade had to happen for the Rockies to rebuild:

The trade captures the reality that is the Rockies: It doesn't matter who you have hitting. Heck, you could have a perennial slugging shortstop, but if you can't pitch, you can't win in Colorado. It's a shame to see Tulo go, but it's a necessary move. The Rockies, with the best-hitting shortstop of his generation, were still the Rockies. First-year general manager Jeff Bridich had to do something to start a massive rebuild and get rid of Tulo's salary.

Dave Cameron at FanGraphs says that even though the Blue Jays need pitching, they found a way to improve their roster just as effectively as they would have by acquiring an arm:

There are no diminishing returns to scoring more runs; there is no point on offense to where the marginal value of a run scored is worth less than preventing a run from being allowed on defense. All that matters is the differential between runs scored and allowed, and you don’t get any extra credit for being above average at both as opposed to dominating in one and surviving at the other.

ESPN's Dave Schoenfield wonders whether Reyes still has enough trade value left in his legs to get the Rockies something worthwhile in return:

His range and arm are shaky enough that I'm not sure a contender would be all that interested in him -- including the Mets (who would likely not want the contract anyway). Who else could use him? If not the Mets, maybe the Angels would consider him as a DH or second baseman. Would the Yankees want him for second base? Reyes last played 43 games there in 2004, and I don't see a first-place team wanting to take on a crucial position shift in the middle of a pennant race.

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