MLB playoff odds: Who's likely in, who's likely out as All-Star break nears
Now that the calendar has flipped to July and both the NBA and NHL playoffs are over, it's officially baseball season.
Let's get caught up with each team's odds to make and miss the postseason for those who haven't been locked into MLB so far.
AL East
| Team | July 2 Record | To Make | To Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 54-32 | -50000 | +3300 |
| Orioles | 53-31 | -50000 | +3300 |
| Red Sox | 44-39 | +260 | -425 |
| Rays | 42-42 | +475 | -1100 |
| Blue Jays | 38-46 | +750 | -3000 |
All odds via theScore Bet
The Yankees and Orioles are basically locked into a playoff spot, as they have implied odds of 99.8% to make the postseason. Baltimore narrowly holds the division lead, with New York seven games up for the top wild-card spot.
The Red Sox are the first team out of the third wild card, with oddsmakers giving them a 27.8% chance of erasing their 1.5-game deficit.
As for the Rays and Blue Jays, they'll likely be sellers at the deadline given their bleak chances of playing meaningful baseball this fall.
AL Central
| Team | July 2 Record | To Make | To Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians | 52-30 | -2000 | +650 |
| Twins | 47-37 | -350 | +230 |
| Royals | 47-39 | -110 | -120 |
| Tigers | 38-46 | +2000 | -20000 |
| White Sox | 24-62 | +3300 | -50000 |
The Guardians have a commanding six-game lead in the division and implied odds of 95.2% to make the postseason.
The Twins and Royals hold the final two wild-card spots, giving the AL Central a chance of having three playoff teams. Kansas City is one of MLB's biggest surprises. It was +460 (17.9% implied probability) to make the postseason at the beginning of the campaign.
AL West
| Team | July 2 Record | To Make | To Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | 47-39 | -275 | +190 |
| Astros | 43-41 | -180 | +140 |
| Rangers | 38-46 | +500 | -1200 |
| Angels | 35-47 | +3300 | -50000 |
| Athletics | 30-56 | +3300 | -50000 |
The Mariners have a three-game lead over the Astros, but the 2022 World Series champions are closing the gap. Houston is 9-1 in its last 10 games to climb out of a sub-.500 record and into the AL West race.
The defending champion Rangers are on the outside looking in. They have a 16.7% chance to make the playoffs and only a 1.6% chance (+6000 odds) of defending their title.
NL East
| Team | July 2 Record | To Make | To Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | 55-29 | -50000 | +3300 |
| Braves | 46-36 | -3500 | +900 |
| Mets | 41-41 | +130 | -165 |
| Nationals | 39-45 | +3300 | -50000 |
| Marlins | 30-54 | +3300 | -50000 |
The Phillies have a stranglehold on the NL East and are the third favorites to win the World Series behind the Dodgers and Yankees.
Meanwhile, the Braves are still in a great position to make the playoffs despite losing preseason MVP candidate Ronald Acuña for the season.
NL Central
| Team | July 2 Record | To Make | To Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 50-35 | -1200 | +500 |
| Cardinals | 43-40 | +135 | -180 |
| Pirates | 40-43 | +700 | -2500 |
| Reds | 39-45 | +500 | -1200 |
| Cubs | 39-46 | +450 | -1000 |
Milwaukee stands atop one of baseball's worst divisions as the Brewers are the only team with favorable odds of making the postseason out of the NL Central. The Cardinals hold the final wild-card spot but have the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Giants hot on their tails.
NL West
| Team | July 2 Record | To Make | To Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 52-33 | -50000 | +3300 |
| Padres | 46-42 | -165 | +125 |
| Diamondbacks | 41-43 | +300 | -500 |
| Giants | 41-44 | +250 | -400 |
| Rockies | 29-55 | +3300 | -50000 |
Finally, the World Series favorite Dodgers are very likely to claim the NL West crown according to the odds. They are -20000 (99.5% implied probability), with the Padres their closest competitors at +2500.