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Detmers to struggle vs. powerhouse Orioles

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We're coming off an exceptional week of MLB best bets. We profited on every single card and capped things off with a 3-0 sweep Friday.

We'll look to keep the ball rolling with three plays for Monday night.

Jared Jones: Under 1.5 walks

Jones walked two batters in his season debut against the Marlins and followed that up with three clean games in terms of control, walking zero batters in each.

That is remarkably impressive for any pitcher, let alone a rookie, especially when you consider the level of competition. Jones started against the Orioles, Phillies, and Mets. Each of those teams is at least three games over .500 and ranks inside the top half of the majors in runs per game.

This isn't a case of someone who's bailed out by a lot of balls being put in play. Jones is simply peppering the strike zone every time out.

The league average in ball percentage is more than 35%, and Jones is throwing balls just 25% of the time. It's not too difficult to avoid walks when only one of every four pitches goes for a ball.

The Brewers are a mid-tier team when it comes to drawing walks, and 10 of the past 15 righties they faced went under 1.5 walks against them. I don't think they're going to be the side that causes control issues for Jones.

Odds: -110 (playable to -140)

Brandon Pfaadt: Over 16.5 outs

Death, taxes, and right-handed pitchers against the Cardinals. While they've picked it up a little bit at the plate, opposing starters are continually pitching deep into games.

Eleven of the past 12 right-handed starters recorded 17 outs or more against St. Louis. The lone exception came Sunday when Colin Rea completed only five innings. He didn't concede a single run but struggled with control issues that pushed his pitch count up.

That shouldn't be an issue for Pfaadt. He's posted a sparkling walk rate of only 3% and is wasting very few pitches, allowing him to preserve his gas tank and chew up innings even when he's not at his best.

For reference, he conceded 13 runs over his last three starts and managed to last 17 outs or more in each of those games.

Odds: -110 (playable to -130)

Reid Detmers: Under 17.5 outs

Detmers is generally not someone who gives the Angels a ton of length. He recorded 18 outs or more only 12 times over his past 31 starts (38%).

He's going to have a difficult time bucking that trend against the Orioles, who sit second in runs per game this season and are particularly dominant against left-handed pitchers.

The Orioles rank first in batting average, on-base percentage, homers, and barrel rate against lefties over the past two weeks. They are absolutely feasting.

Although Detmers is having a very strong start to the season as a whole, he's only gone over his total against a Red Sox team that ranks in the bottom 10 in xwOBA.

Those performances were sandwiched by unders against better lefty-hitting teams like the Rays and these same Orioles.

Odds: -120 (playable to -140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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