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Red Sox to get early jump on Guardians

Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox / Getty Images Sport / Getty

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We started the week on a strong note, going 2-1 with our best bets Monday night.

Let's look at the best ways to attack Tuesday's slate.

Guardians (-105) @ Red Sox (-115)

Tanner Bibee is off to a rocky start to the season. He's conceded nine runs through 13 innings of work despite two of his three appearances coming against bottom-feeders like the White Sox and Athletics.

Bibee owns a very high WHIP of 1.83, and his pitching profile is littered with red flags. He's walking a lot of batters, his barrel rate is 5% above the league average, and he's conceding a ton of good contact. Bibee's .413 xwOBA is among the worst of all pitchers scheduled to start Tuesday night.

What's especially concerning - at least heading into a game with the Red Sox - is Bibee has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters. His xwOBA sits above .450 versus lefties, and he's thrown nearly as many balls as strikes.

The Red Sox are extremely well-equipped to exploit Bibee and his weaknesses. Notables like Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, and Masataka Yoshida, among others, all hit from the left side of the plate.

The heart of the Red Sox offense features almost exclusively left-handed hitters, positioning them well to take advantage of Bibee.

Garrett Whitlock is sporting a 1.26 ERA through more than 14 innings of work. His xwOBA of .310 is quite solid while allowing very few fly balls.

He should be able to keep the Guardians in check early on, giving his bats a real opportunity to earn a lead through the first half of this game.

With the comfort of a push if the score is tied, I like backing the Red Sox on the first five innings moneyline.

Bet: Red Sox F5 ML (-115)

Grayson Rodriguez: Over 17.5 outs

Rodriguez has completed at least six innings in two of three starts this season, falling one out short in his most recent start.

I like his chances of getting right back on the horse against the Twins. Saying they've had a miserable time hitting righties would be an understatement.

The Twins own a .181 batting average versus righties through 424 plate appearances. They rank 27th in strikeouts, 29th in contact rate, and dead last in xwOBA. There's nothing good about their hitting profile.

This is a dream matchup for Rodriguez to put forth a quality start. That's something the Orioles could use as they haven't gotten much length from their rotation of late.

The Orioles' starters have pitched five innings or fewer in four straight games. Rodriguez was the last pitcher to last more than five innings, and the Orioles really need him to do it again.

With an in-form Rodriguez taking on a floundering Twins offense, I like his chances of finishing six innings.

Odds: -120 (playable to -140)

Tommy Henry: Under 16.5 outs

Henry is struggling out of the gate. He's conceded nine runs through three games and failed to record more than 15 outs in any of them. That's not good considering he's faced the Rockies twice and has yet to face a team at .500 or better.

Things could go from bad to worse for Henry while seeing a big step up in competition against the Cubs. They're averaging 5.3 runs per game and have sparkling underlying numbers across the board.

The Cubs rank third in xwOBA, fourth in walk rate, and fourth in barrel rate. Seiya Suzuki missing time with an injury isn't ideal, but this Cubs offense has enough weaponry to survive without him.

Henry lacks overpowering stuff and gives up a lot of good contact. That should lead to continued struggles against the best team he's faced this season.

Odds: -105 (playable to -125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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