Harrison to power Giants over lowly Marlins
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We have an exciting 14-game slate ahead of us Monday night. Let's look at a few plays that pop off the page as we look to rebound from a tough Friday night for our best bets.
Kyle Harrison: Over 16.5 outs
Harrison has completed at least six innings in two of three starts this season. The lone failure came against a lethal Dodgers offense that hasn't allowed a single starting pitcher to reach that mark all season.
The Giants are getting good length from their young pitcher, which should continue Monday night. To say the Marlins have struggled against lefties would be an understatement. They're as bad as it gets.
The Marlins are sporting a .179 batting average and .256 xwOBA versus left-handed arms this season. They also have a league-worst barrel rate of just 3.8%. They don't hit for average, power, or generate walks.
Harrison throws a ton of strikes and doesn't issue many free passes. That means the Marlins will need to string together hits to chase him from this game, which feels like a lot to ask from a team that isn't even hitting close to .200 versus pitchers of Harrison's handedness.
Look for Harrison to pitch six innings (or more) and go over this number comfortably.
Odds: -125 (playable to -160)
Giants (-115) @ Marlins (-105)
The Marlins are a complete disaster. They've won only three of 16 games this season and now have to deal with a promising lefty in Harrison. That isn't what the doctor ordered for a Marlins attack that underwhelms at the best of times.
Harrison should be able to chew up innings against a completely inept lefty-hitting team that just so happens to have more plate appearances against lefties than anybody. The sample size will cross 300 in the first inning, so this isn't just a case of variance over a small amount of at-bats. There's a ton of evidence the Marlins are the worst offense in the majors versus left-handed arms.
A.J. Puk will be scratched for the Marlins due to illness, allowing Edward Cabrera to make his season debut. Puk starting would've been preferable, but the Giants should still be in good shape versus Cabrera.
The Giants have hit righties fairly well thus far. They rank 12th in xwOBA, tied for 13th in homers, and walk at an above-average rate. They're a competent offense.
I don't think they'll need to provide Harrison too much support, given the Marlins' ineptitude at the dish.
This is a good matchup for the Giants, who are a little slow out of the gate, to right the ship and get back on track.
Bet: Giants (-115)
Joe Musgrove: Under 17.5 outs
Musgrove is off to a rocky start. He's allowed 14 runs through four games and posted alarmingly poor underlying numbers. At the top of the list is a .409 xwOBA, the second worst of all the pitchers projected to start a game Monday.
Musgrove has pitched against a difficult string of opponents, already seeing prolific offenses like the Dodgers and Cubs. A date with the Brewers isn't exactly a step in the right direction.
The Brewers are hitting .303 with a league-high 21 homers against right-handed pitching. They're making life miserable for opposing pitchers.
In fact, only two starters have completed six innings against the Brewers this season. That's pretty remarkable given this will be Milwaukee's 15th game.
Given Musgrove's struggles, and how well the Brewers have hit righties, this doesn't look like a good matchup for him to get back on track and pitch deep into the game.
Odds: -115 (playable to -140)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.