Royals to pounce on struggling White Sox
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Wednesday was a perfect night on the diamond. We cashed both pitcher props while the Cubs jumped to an early 5-0 lead against the Rockies to cash our first five innings bet.
Here are three more plays for Thursday's MLB card.
White Sox (+145) @ Royals (-175)
The White Sox are off to a dreadful 1-4 start.
The offense is as bad as it gets. They own a league-worst .182 batting average and are plating only 2.2 runs per game. They're missing one of their only impactful weapons, with Eloy Jiménez already sidelined with a thigh injury.
They're likely in for another tough outing against Seth Lugo and the Royals. Lugo was exceptional in his first start of the season, tossing six scoreless innings while throwing strikes at a high clip. He posted a ground-ball rate of 50% and an xwOBA of .250, while not allowing a single barrel.
Michael Soroka needs to put forth a quality start to help the White Sox stay in this game, but there's little reason to believe he can do that after a dreadful first start. Soroka allowed four runs and 10 baserunners over five innings. He generated swinging strikes on only 3% of his pitches and threw called strikes at a 29.9% clip, nearly 20% below average.
I think Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, and Co. can cause Soroka problems, while this dreadful White Sox offense will likely have a hard time keeping up against Lugo.
Look for the Royals to grab an early lead and hold it through five innings.
Bet: Royals F5 -0.5 (-115)
Martín Pérez: Over 1.5 walks
Pérez is a walk machine - he loves issuing free passes. He lasted just 4.1 innings in his season debut and still walked three batters against a Marlins team that doesn't draw a ton of them.
Pérez made it easy on Miami, as he simply couldn't hit the strike zone. He actually threw more called balls than strikes, which is never a good sign, but control issues aren't new for Pérez.
Dating back to last year, he's walked at least two batters in 21 of his last 30 appearances in which he threw at least 70 pitches. Perez tossed 86 against the Marlins, so he's certainly stretched out and ready to carry that kind of workload again.
He doesn't have the easiest matchup either. The Nationals have shown good plate discipline early in the season, sitting 11th in walk rate at 9%.
If Pérez is going to be erratic with his control, as he usually is, the Nationals will have no problem showing patience and taking walks.
Odds: -130 (playable to -160)
Tanner Bibee: Under 6.5 strikeouts
Bibee has recorded seven punchouts or more in only eight of 26 starts (31%) over the last season and change for the Guardians.
He recorded just four against the Athletics - who lead the majors in K% vs. right-handed arms - in the best possible matchup. He threw balls at an extremely high clip in that game, which is a little concerning given there aren't many bats to dance around on Oakland's roster.
Even if that's a little abnormal for him, jumping to seven strikeouts this time out is a lot to ask. The Twins have struck out in a reasonable 23.1% of their at-bats against righties this season.
Should Bibee face roughly 23 batters - his average over the last 10 games - he needs to strike out over 30% of Twins he faces. That's a lot to ask considering his strike rate was 5% below average in his first game.
I can see Bibee putting together a quality start against a mediocre Twins offense missing Royce Lewis, but the numbers suggest this line is a strikeout too high.
Odds: -140 (playable to -160)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.