Back Astros, Ohtani to rebound from slow starts
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Crazy things happen in small samples. We're seeing that in spades right now, with MLB's first- and third-highest-spending teams winless through seven games combined. Meanwhile, the highest-paid player in history is off to a quiet start with his new club.
Let's look at whether those struggles will continue for another day.
Blue Jays (+120) @ Astros (-140)
The Astros are off to a disappointing 0-4 start. I like their chances to start turning things around Monday against the Blue Jays.
Despite losing all four games versus New York, Houston's numbers under the hood are encouraging.
The Astros posted a .345 xwOBA against right-handed pitching, tying them for sixth best in the majors thus far. They also struck out just 17.6% of the time (the league average is 23.1%) and made contact at a very high rate. Houston's offense, which features tons of star power and a strong batting profile, is simply waiting to pop.
Monday evening offers the perfect get-right spot. Bowden Francis pitched well in spring training, but he'll be making his first career start in Houston. The Astros generally mash at home soil. I think they could get to Francis here.
It's also worth noting that the Blue Jays are dealing with real injury problems in the bullpen. High-leverage relievers Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson are both unavailable. Toronto is unlikely to get real length from Francis here, so missing key weapons out of the bullpen is less than ideal.
Even if Francis holds up early, it'll be very difficult for the Blue Jays to hold a lead against a generally unforgiving offense.
I also think Ronel Blanco is capable of giving the Astros some quality innings. He was terrific in spring training, striking out nearly 33% of opposing batters while allowing zero runs. His strike rate was sky-high, and he didn't allow a single barrel.
With a more experienced starter, a better and healthier bullpen, and an offense waiting to explode, there's value in backing the Astros to get their first win of the season Monday night.
Bet: Astros (-140)
Shohei Ohtani: Over 1.5 total bases
On the surface, Ohtani is off to a slow start to his Dodgers career. He has zero homers, two RBIs, and two extra-base hits through six games. Don't let those numbers fool you.
Ohtani has hit the ball very well, particularly against right-handed pitching. He's posted a .426 xwOBA and a 63.6% hard-hit rate versus righties, far surpassing those respective league averages (.319 and 41.2%).
On Monday, he'll draw the last arm in the Giants' rotation, which is backed by a bullpen that's conceded 10 runs over nine innings of work the past two games.
Ohtani is also playing in the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium. Hotter weather than most cities should help the ball carry further on hard contact. It's also worth noting that Dodger Stadium is one of the best places to hit for power.
Whether Ohtani strings together a multi-hit game or gets there with one effortless swing, I like his chances of picking up a couple of bases in this one.
Odds: -105 (playable to -120)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.