Sizing up a crucial Blue Jays season

The Toronto Blue Jays enter the 2024 season in a very interesting place. The club underperformed relative to expectations in 2023 and was swept in the wild-card round for a second consecutive campaign. Toronto is winless in six postseason games since 2020 and doesn't have the same expectations from pundits as the past two seasons. Despite that, the pressure to perform remains high. Things could look a lot different at this time next year if the Blue Jays don't find a way to make some noise in October. Here are some of the biggest questions surrounding the team ahead of this campaign.

Can the lineup rebound after 2023?

The Blue Jays were puzzlingly pedestrian as an offensive club in 2023. Toronto finished 16th in the league in home runs and 14th in runs scored after finishing seventh and fourth in those two categories the previous year.

A number of key offensive contributors struggled through disappointing performances, a big reason for the team's overall offensive malaise. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, and Daulton Varsho all saw their productivity at the plate plummet from 2022 to 2023. The Blue Jays just couldn't combat that level of underachieving from those players.

It appears that general manager Ross Atkins is betting on a return to form for most, if not all, of those players after a relatively quiet offseason. Toronto added Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and reunited with Kevin Kiermaier. None of those moves are likely to raise the ceiling in a meaningful way in 2024. The Blue Jays will either sink or swim based on the performances of Guerrero, Kirk, Springer, and Varsho. All four players put together strong springs, perhaps an indicator that they're ready to hit the ground running on Opening Day.

Is there enough pitching depth?

Toronto made the postseason in 2023 thanks to a consistently excellent starting rotation. Four pitchers made at least 30 starts, with all four posting an ERA under four. That consistency enabled the Blue Jays to withstand a disastrous campaign from 2022 AL Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah and an underachieving offense.

It was unrealistic to expect that level of health and performance again in 2024. The Blue Jays are already dealing with shoulder injuries to ace Kevin Gausman and Manoah. Right-hander Bowden Francis earned a rotation spot with a strong spring, and Toronto also signed Cuban pitcher Yariel Rodríguez, who could emerge as another option in the rotation at some point this season. The Blue Jays are in a better position in terms of pitching depth than they were last season, but they'll still be in tough to keep their head above water if any of their key pitchers are forced to miss time.

How secure is manager John Schneider's job?

John Schneider's first full season as a major-league manager was anything but smooth. Schneider struggled at times pushing the right buttons and saw Gold Glove third baseman Matt Chapman openly criticize a decision to pitch to Shohei Ohtani, which resulted in a home run.

Schneider's baffling removal of José Berríos after three scoreless innings in Game 2 of the wild-card series continues to stick in the craw of Blue Jays fans. The skipper earned a three-year contract with an option for a fourth season entering 2023 after taking over for Charlie Montoyo and leading Toronto to the first wild-card spot in the American League. Now, Schneider is on uneven ground after last season's uneven performance and postseason flameout.

Schneider probably needs a strong run in October if he hopes to be managing the Blue Jays beyond 2024. He could also be in trouble if Toronto underachieves for any prolonged stretch in an ultra-competitive AL East.

What's the long-term future for Guerrero, Bichette?

Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro recently said that the Blue Jays are having "ongoing" conversations with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette regarding long-term extensions.

"That's a really hard needle to thread," Shapiro said, according to The Athletic's Kaitlyn McGrath. "We continue to have those conversations with our existing players, not just two or not just three, many of them at different levels and different lengths."

Both Guerrero and Bichette are scheduled to hit free agency following the 2025 season. Bichette is already locked in at $11 million this year and $16.5 million next season after inking a deal to buy out his remaining arbitration seasons last year. The Blue Jays and Guerrero went to an arbitration hearing this offseason, with the panel awarding the All-Star $19.9 million.

Guerrero and Bichette's futures are likely dependent on how the Blue Jays fare this season. If the club fails to get over the hump in the playoffs, it wouldn't be shocking to see Atkins explore the trade market if extension talks aren't progressing. It's still hard to envision a scenario where neither Guerrero nor Bichette is wearing a Blue Jays uniform in 2026, but the likelihood of both still being in Toronto at that time has decreased.

The path to keeping Bichette, in particular, looks like a tricky one. Shortstops have been getting paid handsomely over the past few seasons with Xander Bogaerts, Corey Seager, and Trea Turner all cashing in with contracts for more than $200 million. Bichette led the AL in hits in consecutive seasons and has seen incremental defensive improvements. The Blue Jays might need to approach a $300-million offer if they want to be competitive. That would double George Springer's $150-million deal for the biggest contract in franchise history.

Guerrero is a fascinating case. It's fair to look at the first five seasons of his career as somewhat of a disappointment. Guerrero had one transcendent season in 2021 but only one other season with an OPS above .800. Braves first baseman Matt Olson signed an eight-year, $168-million extension in 2022 as he entered his age-28 campaign. That could be a reasonable comparison for the Blue Jays to look at when assessing Guerrero's value.

Is the window closing?

Just a few years ago, the Blue Jays looked like a team on the rise and ready to contend for years to come. Guerrero and Bichette were leading the charge and the front office seemed to add impact players every offseason. However, the payoff has yet to materialize and Toronto's farm system now ranks in the bottom third of the league on most lists.

The Blue Jays hoped to model what the Dodgers have done by churning out prospects year after year to replenish the farm system and graduate some to help the team. Atkins has failed at that, with only a handful of homegrown players making a significant impact at the big-league level over the past few seasons.

If the team doesn't find a way to start racking up some postseason victories, it's fair to wonder if ownership might look to curb spending to a degree. The saving grace might be the recent renovations at Rogers Centre, which could force ownership's hand to remain aggressive as it looks to keep fans engaged and shelling out money to come to the ballpark.