Fantasy: 5 breakout candidates

Identifying breakout players in fantasy baseball takes a bit of a leap of faith. Finding the right pieces at the right point of your draft could be the difference between winning it all and being an also-ran.

Here are five players who could break out in 2024 and help you win your league.

Average draft positions are from FantasyPros as of March 11.

Tarik Skubal, Tigers - SP (ADP: 48)

Skubal returned from flexor tendon surgery in July and performed like one of baseball's best starting pitchers for the remainder of the season. The 27-year-old amassed 3.3 fWAR with a 2.80 ERA and a career-high 11.43 K/9 over 15 starts down the stretch of the 2023 campaign. Skubal is being drafted as an SP2 in most leagues but has the potential to emerge as a fantasy ace this season. He's definitely worth drafting at least one round earlier than his ADP.

Royce Lewis, Twins - 3B (ADP: 63)

Lewis flashed immense potential during his abbreviated rookie season in 2023. The young slugger posted an impressive .920 OPS with 15 home runs and 52 RBIs in just 58 games for the Twins last season. Lewis also mashed in the postseason and could quickly emerge as Minnesota's best offensive player this season. The 24-year-old is entrenched as a top-10 fantasy third baseman in 2024, a lofty perch that he should be able to live up to. He's being drafted behind Gunnar Henderson, Elly De La Cruz, and Manny Machado. It wouldn't be all that surprising if Lewis outperformed all of them this season.

Bobby Miller, Dodgers - SP (ADP: 79)

Miller gets lost in the shuffle in the Dodgers' rotation after the splashy offseason additions of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. However, Miller is coming off an impressive rookie season and is entrenched in manager Dave Roberts' rotation entering the season. Miller averaged nearly a strikeout per inning last year and is capable of improving those numbers in 2024. The 24-year-old is being drafted as a top-30 starter alongside Grayson Rodriguez, Jesús Luzardo, and Eury Pérez. If Miller can reach at least 150 innings this season, he has all the tools to become a top-20 pitcher in fantasy baseball.

Ezequiel Tovar, Rockies - SS (ADP: 205)

Tovar is one of the few bright spots in Colorado. The Rockies shortstop hit 15 home runs and stole 11 bases in his first full MLB season last year. Tovar has the potential to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases. His inconsistent on-base skills will hurt in leagues that use OBP over batting average. However, Tovar is ranked around No. 20 at shortstop, a ranking he could soar past if he can display a bit more offensive upside in 2024.

Gabriel Moreno, D-Backs - C (ADP: 168)

Moreno hit .284 for the D-Backs last season but only went deep seven times. Adding a bit more power to his profile would go a long way to elevating Moreno to the elite tier of fantasy catchers in 2024. The 24-year-old showed some power potential during Arizona's run to the 2023 World Series, perhaps a sign that he can get to another level in the home run department.