MLB Wednesday best bets: Berríos to grind out innings vs. Yankees
We started the week on a strong note, going 2-1 with our best bets. After a day off on Tuesday, we're getting right back on the horse with three plays for Wednesday night's card.
Let's dig in.
Astros (-125) @ Mariners (+105)
The Astros and Mariners split the first couple games of their series, trading four-run victories.
I like the Astros to rebound from Tuesday night's loss and take the rubber match in this crucial divisional game.
Taking the bump for the Astros will be Framber Valdez. Although he's coming off a dreadful start against the Royals, he conceded just six earned runs over his five starts prior to last.
He is keeping the ball in the park, inducing a lot of ground balls, and limiting the amount of hard contact given up. All good signs.
The Mariners have hit lefties well this season, but that hasn't been the case of late. They're hitting just .242 against left-handed pitching in September and rank bottom five when it comes to contact percentage.
The Astros look to be in a much better spot at the plate. Bryce Miller is a talented kid but has averaged fewer than 15 outs recorded over the past five starts and was rocked in two of the last three.
His underlying metrics in that span are not good. Miller owns a .363 xwOBA - worst among all of the day's projected starters - and has given up a lot of hard contact.
That's not a recipe for success against a veteran Astros side that sits sixth in runs per game during the month of September. The team is used to high-pressure games and know how to get results at this time of year.
Look for the Astros to get to Miller in this game and earn a much-needed win.
Bet: Astros (-125)
Wade Miley over 1.5 walks
Miley is a walk machine. He has handed out at least two free passes in four straight games and 10 of the past 12.
Wiley has posted concerning numbers over the past month, throwing balls 40% of the time. That's well above league average and a sign his control issues will continue.
There's every reason to expect as much against the Cardinals. Although they've had a miserable season, they have shown the ability to consistently draw walks, particularly against left-handed pitching.
The Cardinals have walked at least twice against opposing left-handed starters in nine of the past 13 games - including last time out against Miley!
With Miley struggling to hit the plate consistently, and the Cardinals walking at an above-average clip, there's value in backing the over.
Odds: -130 (playable to -145)
José Berríos over 15.5 outs
Berríos has been a consistent innings eater for the Blue Jays all season long. He has registered at least 16 outs in 26 of 31 starts, which equates to a ridiculous 84% success rate.
Berríos enters this contest in fine form, having conceded two runs or less in three of his past four starts while recording 16 outs or more in nine of the last 10 games.
I don't see him having much trouble with this Yankees lineup. The team is very banged up and isn't hitting the ball well right now. The Yankees have plated two runs or less in five of the past eight games and are hitting just .232 against righties over the last couple of weeks.
Aaron Judge always seems to kill the Blue Jays, but he just doesn't have much help at this point. Berríos should once again be able to grind his way into the sixth inning and give the Jays a quality start as they continue to jockey for playoff positioning.
Odds: -115 (playable to -145)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.