MLB Wednesday best bets: Offenses to explode in Los Angeles
Another day, another 2-1 card. We won two of three best bets on Tuesday night, marking the third consecutive post where that has been the case.
As always, we'll happily take the profit and look to keep moving in the right direction. Let's look at some plays that stand out on Wednesday.
I understand the Dodgers are going up against a very good arm in Blake Snell, but that still feels at least a run too low. Snell hasn't been quite as sharp of late, allowing multiple runs in five of his past seven starts. While he hasn't been bad by any means, it is his worst stretch since early May.
Notably, Snell has thrown almost exactly as many balls as strikes, and that's a recipe for disaster against Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and an electric Dodgers offense that makes pitchers pay for their mistakes.
The Padres should be able to generate more than their fair share of offense as well. Ryan Pepiot's surface stats are strong, but he has benefited from extreme luck, with opposing batters hitting .151 on balls put in play over the last month. That number should generally hover between .260 and .290.
Regression is coming for Pepiot sooner rather than later, and the Padres have the talent to bring it to the doorstep. They have scored 5.82 runs per game in September, placing them a hair behind the powerhouse Braves.
San Diego is really doing damage at the plate, and I expect that to continue against Pepiot. The Dodgers will need to score to keep up - and, even against Snell, they should be able to do just that.
This has all the makings of a 7-5 type of game. I like it to go over the number.
Bet: Over 8.5 (+100)
Logan Allen over 15.5 outs
Note: this is a 3:45 p.m. ET start.
As you'd expect from a team that's having trouble generating offense, opposing pitchers are lasting deep into games. Excluding a three-game set against the Rockies - who have a truly horrendous pitching staff - opposing starting pitchers have recorded at least 16 outs in eight straight versus San Francisco.
There's not much reason to expect different against Guardians left-hander Allen, who's in fine form with a .288 xwOBA over the past month. That slots him just outside the top five among the day's projected starters.
Allen may not complete a full six but, with an average pitch count in the 90s, he should be able to get 16 outs against a scuffling offense.
Odds: +105 (playable to -120)
Jordan Montgomery over 15.5 outs
The Blue Jays have excelled against left-handed pitching over the course of the season. They've slowed down of late, though, failing to chase the likes of Cole Ragans, Ken Waldichuk and Ty Blach - a very pedestrian group - before they were able to go over this out line.
I have a hard time believing they'll be able to do it against Montgomery. He's been as consistent as anyone over the last few months, registering at least 16 outs in 15 of his past 17 games - a remarkable 88% success rate.
His line generally sits at 17.5 outs and we've targeted him (with success) several times at that line. With some of the Blue Jays' best bats in a quiet spell - most notably Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Toronto will have a hard time knocking the consistent veteran out of this game early.
Max Scherzer exiting Tuesday's game sooner than expected could incline the Rangers to give Montgomery some extra leash in order to preserve the bullpen in a heated playoff race.
Look for Montgomery to pitch into the sixth inning in this one.
Odds: -120 (playable to -135)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.