MLB Monday best bets: Luzardo to shine vs. Brewers
We ended somewhat of a roller-coaster week on a high, going 2-1 with our best bets Friday night.
We'll look to pick up where we left off and start this week on a high note with three plays for Monday night's fruitful card.
The Orioles saw their seven-game winning streak snapped against the Red Sox last time out. I like their chances of getting right back in the win column and starting a new streak Monday against the Cardinals. The fun should begin early.
Baltimore has a huge pitching advantage with Dean Kremer squaring off against Dakota Hudson.
Kremer conceded two runs or fewer in five of the past six outings and only one run over his past three starts.
The underlying metrics are just as strong, with Kremer sporting a .268 xwOBA over that stretch. For perspective, that puts him in direct company with arms like Tyler Glasnow. Pretty good!
If he can do that, the Orioles have a strong chance of grabbing an early lead in this game (and seeing it through).
Baltimore is averaging a whopping 7.22 runs per game in September, placing it second in the majors.
The Orioles' offense is almost unstoppable right now, and I don't see Hudson being the guy to slow them down.
Hudson owns a .364 xwOBA over the past month, the second-worst rate among Monday's projected starters.
He isn't missing many bats (7%, to be exact), and his walk rate is as high as his strikeout rate in that time.
The Orioles should be able to jump all over Hudson early, providing Kremer with more than enough run support to lead at the midway point.
Bet: Orioles F5 -0.5 (-120)
Jesús Luzardo over 5.5 strikeouts
Luzardo is all the way back. After losing his game for the better part of a month, he's found his form and returned to his usual, dominant self.
Despite squaring off against the Dodgers, Rays, and Padres, Luzardo has allowed just two earned runs over his past three starts. That's two playoff-bound teams and a San Diego side that - at least offensively - has been above average over the past month and change.
Luzardo has registered at least six strikeouts in each of those starts, averaging a healthy seven in that span.
The good times should continue Monday against the Brewers. They've been strikeout machines in recent weeks, with nine of the past 11 opposing starters going over their strikeout line against Milwaukee.
Win or lose, Luzardo should pick up his fair share of punchouts in this game.
Odds: -130 (playable to -140)
Brandon Woodruff under 7.5 strikeouts
Death, taxes, and strikeout-prop unders against the Marlins. They're that good at avoiding them.
Believe it or not, 10 straight pitchers have failed to go over their strikeout line against Miami. If we isolate right-handed pitchers like Woodruff, the streak still sits at eight.
The Marlins have struck out in only 14% of their at-bats versus righties over the past 15 days, slotting them behind only the Astros and Cubs.
Woodruff has electric stuff and a very high ceiling in any given start. It'll be very tough to keep him to a low number.
With that said, his line is high. Miami can likely strike out a little more than once an inning and still get the job done.
That's more than achievable for a Marlins team that has struck out eight times versus a pitcher only once since Aug. 7.
Odds: -110 (playable to -125)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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