We're coming off a disappointing 1-2 night on the diamond, bringing our weekly record to 4-2.
We'll look to get back on track with three plays for a juicy Wednesday card. Let's dig in.
Dodgers (-210) @ Guardians (+180)
The Dodgers have been remarkably consistent in rebounding after a loss, having dropped back-to-back games just twice since July 3.
They fell to a struggling Guardians side Tuesday night. There's every reason to expect them to return the favor tonight.
Xzavion Curry will take the bump for the Guardians, and the underlying metrics don't paint him nearly as positively as the counting stats do - especially of late.
Curry has struggled to throw strikes over the last month, and his barrel rate of nearly 11% is concerning, particularly since he's going up against a team with as much power as the Dodgers.
His inability to keep the ball is also worrying. Curry has induced grounders 25% of the time over the last 30 days, which is nearly 20% lower than the league average.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that bad things will usually happen when you let Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Co. put the ball in play against you.
The Dodgers should be able to get to Curry and plate a few runs early. I don't anticipate the Guardians being able to answer.
Cleveland is hitting just .229 in August with nine home runs. No other club has recorded fewer than 17, while the league average is 26.3. There is next to no power in the lineup without Josh Naylor, and the players can't get on base, either.
Expect Clayton Kershaw to have a relatively easy time slowing them down en route to helping the Dodgers take a lead through five innings.
Bet: Dodgers F5 -0.5 (-135)
Kevin Gausman over 17.5 outs
Gausman has been eating innings all season long. Whether he has his best stuff or not, he always seems to grind his way late into games.
He completed six innings or more in 17 of 24 starts, good for a 71% success rate. Gausman has been a model of consistency, bouncing back after each and every short start. In fact, he hasn't pitched fewer than six innings in back-to-back appearances all season.
Gausman pitched only 5.1 innings against the Phillies last time out, so make of that what you will.
There are more quantifiable reasons to like Gausman in this spot. The Orioles rank 23rd in xwOBA versus righties this month and have posted the fifth-highest ground-ball rate. They're not making a ton of great contact and are putting a lot of balls in the dirt. Both of those factors bode well for Gausman.
He should also have a longer leash than usual. Yusei Kikuchi was unable to finish even five innings Tuesday - and the game went to extra innings. The Blue Jays had to lean on their bullpen, using six different relievers.
Manager John Schneider will want to save his bullpen if possible, which means Gausman will be able to work through trouble so long as the wheels don't completely fall off.
Odds: -115 (playable to -135)
Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 walks
Note: This is for Game 1 of the doubleheader (4:07 p.m. ET)
Ohtani is a fantastic pitcher, but he does have one flaw on the mound: walks. He issued at least two free passes in 16 of 20 starts this season, which equates to a concerning 80% rate.
Of the four teams Ohtani walked one batter against, the Pirates are the lone squad that ranks in the top 14 in walk rate versus righties.
Ohtani will be in tough Wednesday night against a Reds team that draws a lot of walks. Although they strike out a lot, they also earn plenty of free passes.
The Reds rank ninth in walk rate against righties this season and have walked twice or more against eight of the past 10 right-handed starters faced.
Look for that trend to continue against Ohtani.
Odds: -120 (playable to -140)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
